Penn State vs Maryland Picks and Predictions: Nittany Lions Reach for .500

With disappointing seasons to date, Penn State and Maryland square off in pursuit of crawling back to .500. At just a game below that threshold, our betting picks are targeting the Nittany Lions to cover and potentially square their record tonight.

Last Updated: Feb 21, 2022 4:33 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Myles Dread Penn State Nittany Lions College Basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Penn State Nittany Lions (11-12) have a chance to crawl back to .500 with a road win tonight against the Maryland Terrapins. 

Maryland just knocked off Nebraska but had previously lost five straight to top-tier Big Ten opponents. Meanwhile, Penn State won two straight at home but will be back on the road for tonight’s game, where the Nittany Lions are 1-6 in Big Ten play.

Will Penn State continue its winning streak and make it three in a row? Here are our college basketball betting picks and predictions for the Big Ten matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Maryland Terrapins.

Penn State vs Maryland odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Maryland Terrapins opened as a three-point favorite but have already been bet down to -2.5 at most outlets. Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 130 to as low as 129 at a couple of sportsbooks at the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Penn State vs Maryland predictions

Predictions made on 2/21/2022 at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Penn State vs Maryland game info

Location: XFINITY Center, College Park, MD
Date: Monday, February 21, 2022
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET

Penn State at Maryland betting preview


Penn State: Greg Lee F (Questionable).
Maryland: James Graham III F (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nittany Lions are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight-up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Penn State vs. Maryland.

Penn State vs Maryland picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Time is running out for either the Penn State Nittany Lions or the Maryland Terrapins to put together winning seasons as they both sit below the .500 threshold. With Penn State sitting at 11-12 and Maryland sitting at 12-14, one team is going to get closer to that goal. 

The Nittany Lions are more known for their defense than offense this season. While the Nittany Lions won’t force a whole lot of turnovers, Penn State is holding teams to a 47.5% effective field goal percentage. Opponents have been able to hit 34.7% from deep, but inside the arc, Penn State is tough, holding teams to just 44.7% shooting. 

On the glass, the Nittany Lions have held offensive rebounds to just 24.5%, and Penn State will rarely foul and send teams to the line. Ultimately, the foul line is where Maryland dominates on the offensive end.  

Maryland is shooting 75.2% from the foul line and gets there often. Meanwhile, the Terrapins are only shooting 32.3% from deep and 49.2% from inside the arc this season. Turnovers will be limited but so will offensive rebounds and second chances for Maryland. 

On the other hand, Penn State will rarely get to the line, despite shooting 73.3% from the charity stripe. The Nittany Lions are the better offense when it comes to percentages, knocking down 34.2% of threes and 50.2% of shots from inside. But like Maryland, offensive rebounds don’t come around very often. 

Still, Penn State should be able to win the rebounding battle and ultimately shoot the ball better this season. On the road, it’s never an easy task to out-shoot an opponent, but Penn State’s defense should be good enough to allow the Nittany Lions to shoot at a higher percentage in this one.

Prediction: Penn State +3 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Maryland’s the wild card team here. We’ve seen the Terrapins give up 110 points to Iowa but we’ve also seen them hold Purdue to 62 points. 

But like I’ve said before, Penn State’s defense is legitimate and if the Terrapins can’t get to the line at a high rate, the offense is going to suffer. The Nittany Lions don’t mind playing slow, half-court basketball, with the first team to 60 winning the game. 

Prediction: Under 129.5 (-110)

Best bet

I’m rocking with Penn State on the road. Maryland’s offense relies on foul-shooting first and foremost and the Terrapins likely won’t get to the line at a very high rate in this game. 

On top of that, Penn State is shooting 34.2% from deep while Maryland is allowing opponents to hit 3-pointers at a 35% clip. The Nittany Lions will take more threes in this game and simply don’t shy away from good looks from downtown. 

Pick: Penn State +3 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Penn State vs. Maryland picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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