Oregon vs Arizona Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Ducks Blown Away By Boswell, Wildcats

The semifinals of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament go down this Friday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The first game features the No. 4 seed Oregon Ducks (21-11, 12-8 Pac-12) and the No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats (25-7, 15-5).

According to the conference tournament odds, the Wildcats — one of the principle March Madness odds contenders — are expected to advance to the finals as -11.5 favorites while the total has been set at 155.

That should come as no surprise — the top seed rambled over the USC Trojans in the Pac-12 Tournament bracket quarterfinal by a score of 70-49 and swept the regular season meetings with the Ducks. 

Dana Altman’s team is rarely an easy out come March, setting the stage for an eventful Friday night in Vegas. 

Check out my college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs. Arizona on Friday, March 15.

Oregon vs Arizona best odds

Oregon vs Arizona picks and predictions

Tommy Lloyd’s No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats made a statement win in their second-round thrashing of the No. 9 seed USC Trojans, dominating for much of 40 minutes in a 70-49 win. The Wildcats let their guard down in the regular season finale after clinching the regular season championship, falling 65-78 to those very same Trojans. Lloyd’s group quickly made amends for that slip-up and now have their sights set on another championship. 

The bench came up big against USC — KJ Lewis and Jaden Bradley combined for 27 points. Lloyd’s group played hounding defense throughout the game and looked like a motivated squad. This is their event to lose. 

Arizona has moved up to fourth overall in KenPom, ranking seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This team seems to have to requisite talent to win it all — not only in Vegas, but in the Big Dance as well. 

The oddsmakers seem to hold them in high esteem as they’re a double-digit favorite in the semifinals against the No. 4 seed Oregon Ducks. Dana Altman’s squad advanced with a narrow two-point win over the No. 5 seed UCLA Bruins by a score of 68-66. 

There weren’t a whole lot of takeaways from that game in my opinion — it was a close game and it went about as expected. N’Faly Dante is one of the best players in the conference and he backed that up with 19 points, 12 rebounds, four steals, and a block. The Ducks shot just 4-for-20 from 3-point land and ran a very shallow rotation as expected due to a dearth of available scholarship players. 

Both regular season meetings went Arizona’s way. First, the Wildcats grabbed an 87-78 victory as a 4-point favorite in Eugene behind Pac-12 Player of the Year Caleb Love’s 36-point barrage. Then they boat-raced the Ducks 103-83 in Tucson as 13.5-point favorites while three players (Pelle Larsson, Love, Keshad Johnson) scored 21 or more points. 

Given the Ducks’ lack of available, healthy bodies, I wouldn’t be surprised a bit if Lloyd has his squad step on the gas pedal even more than normal. The Wildcats rank 15th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, loving to play fast. They’ll be ready for the challenge of cranking things to full-throttle. 

Oregon’s defense is the worst unit on the floor by a wide margin analytically, checking in at 94th KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wildcats are elite behind the arc (37.4%) and at getting to the rim (eighth in Haslametric’s near-proximity attempt rate). With advantages in many key areas, it’s hard to see them not having a successful day at the office offensively. 

Arizona ranks third nationally in scoring offense at 88.8 ppg. T-Mobile Arena is generally a shooting-friendly environment and the Wildcats shouldn’t have too much fatigue in just their second game of the tournament after an easy blowout win a day ago. 

My best bet: Arizona team total Over 83.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Oregon vs Arizona same-game parlay

Arizona -11

Kylan Boswell Over 1.5 made 3s

N’Faly Dante Over 15.5 points 

+490 at DraftKings

This three-leg SGP assumes the game script of Arizona scoring enough to win by more than the spread indicates. Good things tend to happen when mercurial point guard Kylan Boswell plays his best and I’m willing to buy low after a few down games considering he hits 1.9 threes per game. This is a decent matchup in a friendly environment for shooters. 

On the flip side, N’Faly Dante is a monster and the Ducks will rely on him heavily here in a win-or-go-home situation. He’s scored at least 16 points in four straight games and he should get a lot of opportunities considering Arizona plays at a fast tempo and averages the fourth-most possessions per game in the nation. Dante scored 19 points in the first matchup in Eugene and 16 in the next matchup in Tucson. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oregon vs Arizona spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been a bit of line movement as Arizona opened at -11, was bet down to -10 briefly, and then moved back up to -11 at current. Some books have already moved to -11.5, so be sure to shop around and use our college basketball line movement tool to track any further changes and see where the market is headed. 

The Ducks have been an unprofitable team for bettors to back this year at 14-18 ATS. They failed to cover either of the regular season games against the Wildcats and are 0-3 ATS in the last three meetings dating back to last season. Oregon is just 1-9 ATS across its last 10 games overall. 

Arizona has been a money train at 21-10-1 ATS. The Wildcats make for a difficult matchup against Oregon because they like to play with a quick tempo, and that tests the Ducks’ thin rotation. They also have size on the interior — especially Oumar Ballo — to counteract Dante, who typically dominates opposing teams. 

The total opened at 156.5 but has moved down to as low as 154.5 at some books. There was buy back up to 155.5 at some spots, so it’s unclear at the moment where this one is headed. 

The Ducks have been profitable to the Over this season at 19-13 O/U. That includes a 3-1 O/U record in their last four games played away from home. 

Oregon vs Arizona betting trend to know

Arizona has scored at least 84 points in seven of its last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon vs. Arizona.

Oregon vs Arizona game info

Oregon vs Arizona key injuries

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