The No. 3 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels stand alone at the top of the ACC standings, but an upset home loss earlier this week to Clemson has given hope to some ACC programs in the conference standings.
The Miami Hurricanes have dropped two of their last three but look to continue a two-game home winning streak with a victory over the Tar Heels on Saturday at Watsco Center.
Who will be the hungriest program to win Saturday’s ACC conference tilt? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for North Carolina and Miami on Saturday, February 10.
North Carolina vs Miami best odds
North Carolina vs Miami picks and predictions
The No. 3 North Carolina Tar Heels had an excellent opportunity to extend their conference lead Tuesday night. Still, the hosts came out flat and found themselves staring down a nine-point half-time deficit before being upset in the game's waning moments by the Clemson Tigers.
It was a difficult night all around for North Carolina. To add insult to injury, the Virginia Cavaliers beat the Miami Hurricanes on Monday to get within one game of catching the Tar Heels in the standings. Tar Heels All-American forward Armando Bacot was less than thrilled about Tuesday’s result and was vocal afterward, telling reporters,
"We got what we deserved," Bacot said. "That wasn't what we wanted. I wasn't happy with how we practiced and with some of the things we did. I guess that is an emotional thing, and a lot of stuff goes into it, but at the end of the day, we have a job to do and have to come in and play. Today, we learned that lesson. The hungrier team won."
Miami may come into this matchup hungry, but they’ve dropped two of their last three, scored 38 points in a humiliating loss at Virginia, and are in grave danger of missing the NCAA tournament. They host a likely hungrier and highly focused North Carolina program with a 5-1 away record and a 5-1-0 ATS mark in the visitors' jersey.
Both programs are hungry for bouncebacks, but my money is not only on North Carolina being the hungrier program but on bouncing back big enough to cover the -4-point spread.
Look for North Carolina to lead with their defense. Miami can shoot it, but the Tar Heels play the best three-point and second-best field-goal shooting defense in the ACC. The Carolina “D” has been leaky recently, but they will be hungry enough to rise to the challenge against a sometimes high-scoring Hurricanes offense averaging a whopping 85 ppg at home.
From January 6 to January 22, North Carolina was hungry enough to win seven straight games by double-digits over conference opponents. They were the hungriest on both ends of the floor, extremely aggressive on the glass, and played suffocating defense at times that has since fallen by the wayside over their last few tilts.
Finally, North Carolina doesn’t need to pad an already impressive resume, but they will improve to 6-4 in Quadrant 1 wins with a big victory over Miami. The Tar Heels are 5-1-0 ATS as the away team and will have fire in their eyes and hunger in their bellies.
My best bet: North Carolina -4 (-110 at BetRivers)
North Carolina vs Miami same-game parlay
North Carolina -4
Under 154.5
This two-leg same-game parlay pays $250 for a $100 stake, and it's all about the North Carolina defense and the Miami offense failing to score its 79-point average in four of their last five games.
The Tar Heels defense has struggled the past three games. Bacot was understandably disappointed with their play against Clemson, but he was visibly angry at times Tuesday night with his teammates' defense.
Expect that to change and the Tar Heels defense that helped fuel their recent seven-game winning streak by double-digit margins against ACC opponents. Miami won’t shoot well enough to win this game or cover. As a result, Saturday’s game ends Under the total.
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North Carolina vs Miami spread and Over/Under analysis
BetRivers has the best number for North Carolina across the US betting landscape, but the rest of the shops have numbers from -4.5 (-108 to -110), while DraftKings has North Carolina -5 (-110).
The number for the Tar Heels probably should’ve opened much higher, but North Carolina is 1-2-1 ATS over their last four. That’s perhaps the reason the bookmakers opened North Carolina so low. Still, the Tar Heels are 3-1-1 ATS over their previous five away tilts, and I feel confident North Carolina is in Coral Gables and hungry enough take care of business.
Miami is 7-5-1 ATS at home and 1-1-0 ATS against a nationally ranked opponent thus far. They are also 2-2 straight up and 1-2-1 ATS at home over their last four and should be getting more than +5 on Saturday.
The total opened 154.5 (-110) straight across the spectrum of US shops, and that’s a tough number for this one.
North Carolina has an Over/Under record of 3-7-0 to the Under over their last 10 but 2-0-0 to the Over during their previous two. The total in the Duke game went 25 points over the close, the Clemson tilt ended two points Over the closing number, and Miami isn’t as good as either offense.
Bacot claimed the team poorly prepared the last couple of games, especially on the defensive end. North Carolina has allowed too many open looks from downtown recently--Miami shoots well enough to exploit that all day but the Heels have length on the perimeter and if they’ll be hungry enough to get the best of the Hurricanes snipers.
Miami is 3-7-0 to the Under over their previous 10 and 1-5-0 to the Under in their last six matchups. The Tar Heels have failed to score its 77.1 away average in their previous five away matchups, and this game will likely end Under the total.
North Carolina vs Miami betting trend to know
The Tar Heels are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Miami.
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North Carolina vs Miami game info
| Location: | Watsco Center, Coral Gables, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, February 10, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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