Miami vs Duke Odds, Picks and Predictions: Canes Can't Corral Isaiah Wong

In the preseason, what some thought was a potential clash for a top spot in the ACC has turned into something different. However, the game is equally as pivotal when Miami travels to North Carolina to face Duke. 

The Blue Devils have struggled this season... at least by their standards. There was always going to be some degree of that after losing a legendary coach, but it's been more than it should be. Freshman sensations such as Isiah Lively haven't been good enough and they come into this one reeling with losses in two of their last four. 

Miami looks like another dangerous tournament team with explosive guard play that can take over a game at any moment. They have climbed to 17th in the national rankings and have won two of the last three games, including a win over Syracuse.

Keep reading my college basketball picks and predictions for my best bet and more. 

Miami vs Duke best odds

Miami vs Duke picks and predictions

With Duke desperate for a win and the matchup favoring Miami, there are two compelling arguments for both sides.

First, the matchup favors the Canes' but betting the spot — as we've routinely spoken about — is so important in college basketball. So we'll stay away from a side and head to the prop market for what I view as the best bet on the board. Isaiah Wong could be the best player on the court today. 

He's got a sensational matchup, for starters. Among players with 30 possessions or more charted, Wong is second in the ACC in points per possession on pick-and-roll sets with 1.05. In addition to that, he's second in the league in field goal percentage at 51% on these sets as well.

Defending ball screens, mainly the pick-and-roll, has been a massive issue for Duke this season. No matter who they've used, the Blue Devils haven't been able to defend it.

As a team, they are 13th in the ACC in defense, and individually, they hardly have any players that are even average defending it. It's been the catalyst of their problems this season, a huge reason they've lost games to teams with talented guard play such as NC State and Clemson.

Duke was absolutely blitzed by the Wolfpack, and its guard play destroyed them. Jarkel Joiner, who sits right next to Wong in PPP in pick-and-roll, had a big game with 21 points. The Clemson matchup was significantly closer, but the guard play rolled the day.

Brevin Galloway, who doesn't have the fulfillments to be accounted for in the stats but would have similar numbers to Wong in pick-and-roll sets, finished the game with 17 points. Two recent players who have had a similar advantage to what Wong does today have gone Over this number. 

Wong thrives in these positions. Forget bad pick-and-roll defenses for a second; he typically responds quickly after a single-digit scoring effort. And bad news for Duke is that he's coming off one of those today. In his latest outing against Syracuse, Wong finished with just nine points.

He's had three single-digit scoring outings before that effort this season, and in each of them, he's gone over 15 points. He had 18 against Providence,16 against Rutgers, and 22 against Boston College.

This is the spot for Wong as he routinely destroys bad pick-and-roll defenses. He's faced two worse in the ACC than Duke this season, scoring 22 points and 10 points.

The 10-point showing came against a dreadful Louisville team. In that game, he played a season-low 22 minutes and the game was essentially wrapped up by halftime. Had he played an average amount, there's no doubt we'd have two data points of him easily eclipsing this number.

I'm confidently backing Wong today and expect him to do what he does best. 

My best bet: Isaiah Wong Over 15.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Miami vs Duke spread analysis

I need help to make a robust and unbiased assessment of this matchup. I watch a lot of ACC basketball and I've maybe watched Duke as much as my favorite team in Louisville.

Sometimes that makes you a little too close to the situation and you overemphasize a team's warts more than anything. However, I can't back this Duke team.

The Blue Devils are just so bad defensively, starting with what I mentioned above. My projections have Miami losing this game by four points and if I had to bet on a side, it would be the Canes. However, that's a margin that puts you in a position to lose the side on late-game fouling, which is my fear of backing them.

If I had another lean here, I would look at Kyle Filipowski in the rebounding market. As of publication, I'm seeing DraftKings post several 9.5 at +100, which I'll place a half-unit on but only at plus money. 

As mentioned at the onset, this is a massive game for Duke after a few recent losses. Its best path to victory is dominating Miami on the glass and creating second-chance scoring opportunities.

Duke owns a huge advantage there, ranking third in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage against a team that ranks in the mid-200s in defensive rebounding percentage. There won't be a better rebounder on the court than Filipowski. 

Miami vs Duke Over/Under analysis

It has to be Over or nothing here. I've spent a ton of time documenting Duke's defensive issues. It's why they are losing games (see best bet) and why Miami will have a chance at winning this game.

However, there are also some issues for Miami, and they come in the form of rebounding, as mentioned. Duke has the talent and athleticism to dominate the boards. If it does that, that sets up a recipe to go Over the total of 148.5 in what should be a high-tempo matchup. 

There are two conflicting trends in this matchup, though, which will keep me off the total — at least pregame. Miami has seen a strong string of Unders in road games. It's gone that way in eight of their last 10. However, Duke has been a huge Over team. The most robust trend for this game is five of its previous seven going Over after a loss.

Miami vs Duke betting trend to know

Dule has failed to cover in four straight games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Miami.

Miami vs Duke game info

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