The first round of the 2021 Big 12 Tournament tips off on Wednesday with the Kansas State Wildcats taking on the Texas Christian Horned Frogs at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.
The Horned Frogs finished the regular season as the No. 8 seed in the conference with a 12-13 overall record (5-11 in conference play), while the No. 9 seed Wildcats went 8-19 (4-14 in conference).
We bring you our best free Kansas State vs. TCU picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Wednesday, March 8. Tipoff will be at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Kansas State vs TCU odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTexas Christian opened -3 Tuesday afternoon at FanDuel, got to -4 Tuesday night, then this morning moved back to -3.5, where the line sits at 3 p.m. ET. The Horned Frogs are attracting 62 percent of tickets and 57 percent of cash on the spread. The total went from 128 to 129 last night, but has since dialed down to 126.5, although the Over is drawing 81 percent of bets/71 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameKansas State Wildcats vs TCU Horned Frogs betting preview
Injuries
Kansas State: Carlton Linguard Jr F (Questionable), Montavious Murphy F (Out).
TCU: Francisco Farabello G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in TCU's last seven neutral-site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas State vs. TCU.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It's been a rough year for KSU head coach Bruce Weber and the Wildcats. They did play well down the stretch, though, going 3-1 SU in their last four games which included upset wins over both Oklahoma and Texas Christian.
The Horned Frogs' loss at home to Kansas State on February 20 may have been the low point of their season, which is saying a lot because they haven't had many high points. TCU closed out the regular season going 1-6 SU in its final seven games and 2-6 ATS in the previous eight contests.
Despite that loss to Kansas State three weeks ago, the Horned Frogs did handle the Wildcats on the road earlier this year.
Also keep in mind that the Horned Frogs went ice-cold from the field in that February meeting, shooting 32 percent overall and going 4-18 from long range. Don't expect that to happen twice in a row against a weak Wildcats defense that allows the highest opponent field goal (46.2) and three-point (36.2) percentage in the Big 12.
The Wildcats are even worse at putting the ball in the hoop, ranking 320th in the nation in offensive efficiency by averaging just 90.3 points per 100 possessions.
When you also consider that the two best players in this contest, guards R.J. Nembhard (15.9 points and 4 assists per game) and Mike Miles (13.8 ppg, 3.2 apg), both play for TCU, the Horned Frogs should be able to win and cover.
PREDICTION: TCU -3 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
These teams went below the total in both meetings this season and are now 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 games in the head-to-head. There is little reason to see this game going any differently with how poor both teams are on offense and the slow tempo they play at.
Kansas State ranks outside the Top-300 schools in the country when it comes to scoring with 61.2 points per game and is shooting 40.9 percent from the field. The Horned Frogs are marginally better on offense but ranking 269th in the country with 67.5 ppg isn't exactly something to be proud of.
KSU also ranks 309th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, while TCU ranks 251st. With Kansas State going 6-0 to the Under in its last six games, back the Under again.
PREDICTION: Under 128 (-106)
Kansas State vs TCU betting card
- TCU -3 (-110)
- Under 128 (-106)
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