The 2021 Big 12 Tournament tips off on Wednesday with the late game featuring the Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma Sooners at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.
Although the opening round usually has teams that don't have a snowball's chance in Texas (sorry, too soon?) of making the NCAA Tournament, the Oklahoma Sooners are still projected as a No. 6 seed in the latest Bracket Matrix projections.
We bring you our best free Iowa State vs. Oklahoma picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Wednesday, March 10.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonOklahoma hit the PointsBet USA odds board at -11.5 and stuck there much of the past 24 hours, save for about two hours Tuesday and some time overnight at -11. As of 6 p.m. ET, the Sooners are -11.5. “Eighty-one percent of bets and 86 percent of money on Oklahoma,” PointsBet’s Wyatt Yearout said. The total is at its peak of 142 from an opener of 139.5, with 96 percent of tickets/84 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameIowa State Cyclones vs Oklahoma Sooners betting preview
Injuries
Iowa State: Rasir Bolton G (Questionable), Xavier Foster F (Out).
Oklahoma: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Sooners' last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa State vs. Oklahoma.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
It's rare to see such a mismatched pairing in the opening round of a Power Five conference tournament. The Cyclones finished the regular season with a woeful 2-21 record and went just 2-6-1 ATS in their final nine games—despite routinely being spotted double-digit point spreads.
The Sooners were the No. 7-ranked team in the country just two weeks ago, before a four-game losing streak dropped them to No. 25. While a loss against Kansas State is inexcusable, the other three Oklahoma defeats in that span were close contests against Top-15 schools in Texas and Oklahoma State.
The Sooners have a deep and experienced squad with four players averaging double-digits in points, headlined by Austin Reaves, who leads the team with 17.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. Oklahoma ranks 35th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and has also been solid on the defensive end of the floor, limiting opponents to a field goal percentage of 41.9.
Although the Cyclones covered the spread in both of their meetings against the Sooners this season, they still rank near the bottom of the country in average scoring margin at minus-11.3 points per game. And while their own leading scorer, Rasir Bolton, is listed as questionable after missing the last two games with an ankle injury, he likely won't be 100 percent even if he plays.
Expect the Sooners to come out extremely motivated after tough losses to the Longhorns and Cowboys, and back them on the spread.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma -11 (-106)
Over/Under Pick
Oklahoma has an efficient offense but that's due in large part to how well it takes care of the ball, ranking seventh in the country by turning the ball over on just 13.2 percent of all offensive plays. The Sooners shot a mediocre 42.8 percent from the field and 31.7 percent from long range in conference play. They also play at a slow pace, ranking 221st in the country in adjusted tempo.
Meanwhile, the Cyclones have been brutal offensively, averaging 64.2 ppg on 41.2 percent shooting against Big 12 foes. And that number has dropped to 60.6 ppg over their last eight contests.
With these squads combining for just 122 points on 39 percent shooting when they previously met up three weeks ago, take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 140.5 (-110)
Iowa State vs Oklahoma betting card
- Oklahoma -11 (-106)
- Under 140.5 (-110)
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