The Nevada Wolf Pack are one of the better teams in college basketball but will try to end an ugly trend against losing teams as they host Colorado State on Wednesday. We break down an entertaining slate of college hoops games this week – including Mississippi State vs Kentucky in SEC action, and Gonzaga and Santa Clara set to return to their high-scoring ways in a rematch of their one-sided Jan. 5 meeting in Spokane. Here are the top games, betting trends and tips to monitor as the NCAA basketball schedule chugs along.
A Total Conundrum
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have been one of the more consistent Under plays on the road. The Kentucky Wildcats are a cinch to go below the total at home. So why would bettors even consider taking the Over in their SEC encounter Tuesday night at the hallowed Rupp Arena? Their head-to-head series has been a pageantry of points, with the teams having gone a sizzling 9-1-1 O/U in their previous 11 meetings. Four of the past six Overs between the teams surpassed the total by six or fewer points, but given their history, combined with Kentucky having won 11 straight meetings, the Wildcats-Over combo is in play here.
A New Day for Nevada?
The Nevada Wolf Pack remain one of the hottest teams in all of Division I – but Wednesday's opponent presents a different kind of challenge as they entertain the Colorado State Rams. Nevada (16-1 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) has been virtually unbeatable straight-up in 2018-19, but has just one successful cover (with one push) in its previous eight games against teams with losing records. That bodes well for bettors who have put their faith in the Rams, who are 6-0-1 ATS in their previous seven road games but are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven visits to Nevada. The teams have also gone an amazing 10-2 O/U in their past 12 encounters.
Marquette Magic
The DePaul Blue Demons average a healthy 77.6 points this season, ranking them inside the top 85 nationally – but they might have a hard time getting there Wednesday night as they visit the Marquette Golden Eagles. The hosts are an umblemished 13-0 SU at home on the season and have traditionally made life difficult for the Blue Demons at home, holding them to 58 or fewer points in each of their previous five meetings in Milwaukee. Each of those five games finished below the number, giving bettors something to think about regarding both Wednesday's overall total and the Blue Demons' team figure.
Due for a Shootout?
The Gonzaga Bulldogs and Santa Clara Broncos used to be one of the most automatic Over plays in college basketball. But with back-to-back Unders on their resume, bettors might be hesitant to go back to that well as the teams renew hostilities Thursday night in Santa Clara. But the Broncos are coming off a 95-48 thrashing at the hands of the Bulldogs earlier this month, and are unlikely to shoot that poorly again (33.3 percent from the field, 23.5 percent from deep). The previous Under saw the high-powered Bulldogs settle for 75 points, and that isn't likely to repeat, either. The teams are 10-4 O/U in their last 14 games in Santa Clara.
Mid-Major to Watch: San Francisco Dons (16-3 SU, 9-7-2 ATS)
The Dons might not be quite ready to challenge the powerhouse Bulldogs for West Coast Conference supremacy, but they're a solid No. 2 in the conference thanks to 16 wins in their first 19 games. College Insider moved the Dons up three spots to No. 6 in their mid-major rankings by virtue of a narrow one-point win at Pacific and an impressive 19-point rout of Brigham Young. But bettors might not be quite ready to jump aboard, with San Francisco having gone just 2-6 ATS in its past eight games.
The key to the Dons' success: A stifling defense that limits opponents to 62.6 points per game, the 19th-best rate in the nation. And that figure includes a 96-point breakout by Gonzaga in a 13-point Bulldogs victory Jan. 12 in San Francisco. The Dons limit the opposition to 29.2 percent from 3-point range and are one of the better shooting teams in the country, ranking inside the top 50 at 47.5 percent from the floor. San Francisco next hosts Portland on Thursday.
Team News
- The Florida Gators have lost one of their starting forwards for the remainder of the season. Junior Keith Stone suffered a torn ACL in Saturday's 62-52 victory over the Georgia Bulldogs when he fell after attempting to block a shot. It's a big blow to the Gators' depth; they enter the week 10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS, and +12,500 to win the national championship.
- It's a big week if you're a fan of the Tennessee Volunteers. They've vaulted past the Duke Blue Devils and into top spot in the Associated Press weekly top-25 poll. Tennessee received 48 first-place votes to move from third to first, with the Blue Devils now in the No. 2 spot and Virginia moving up one position to No. 3 despite losing to Duke last week.
National Title Odds
- There's a new No. 2 in the national championship odds race. Gonzaga has pulled into the runner-up spot at +900, flipping both spots and odds with the Michigan Wolverines (+1,000). The Virginia Cavaliers dip slightly from +1,100 to +1,200, while the newly-minted No. 1 team in the country, the Tennessee Volunteers, are next in line at +1,400
Betting Trends
- Road underdogs have proven to be a more solid investment than usual over the past week's worth of NCAA basketball games. Away 'dogs have converted at a 27.6-percent clip over the previous seven days (62-for-225), well above the full-season success rate of 20.5 percent. Road teams in general have won nearly 41 percent of the time over the last week.
- Defense (or bad shooting) also reigns supreme, with the Under cashing in better than 55 percent of the time in non-overtime games and 53.7 percent of total contests over the previous seven days. That gives the Under play an ever-so-slight edge in the past 30 days (50.4 percent) and a modest lead for the season (51.7 percent)
- Being good on the court doesn't necessarily equate to returning profit. And that statement is truest when it comes to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who are far and away the least profitable of any top 25 team heading into the week. The Raiders are a wretched 6-11-1 ATS on the season despite boasting a 15-3 SU record and sitting 14th in the AP rankings.
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