No. 6 Arizona has lost just twice since the Tommy Lloyd era began a season ago. For a first-time head coach, Lloyd’s 51-7 record across a year and a half is certainly nothing to scoff at.
The Wildcats (18-3) sit at 7-3 in Pac-12 play and will look to continue moving up the standings in a road tilt against the Washington Huskies (13-9).
Will Arizona make it four straight wins with an impressive showing on the road, or will Mike Hopkins’ side stand firm?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Arizona Wildcats and Washington Huskies on Saturday, January 28 to find out.
Arizona vs Washington best odds
Arizona vs Washington picks and predictions
The Wildcats seemed to fall out of the public’s favor a bit, in a midseason lull that saw them drop two games in embarrassing fashion. First came a 74-61 defeat to a mediocre-at-best Washington State team, and then there was the 87-68 embarrassment at the hands of Dana Altman’s Oregon Ducks.
Tommy Lloyd rallied his troops after the Ducks loss and Arizona has rattled off three straight impressive victories over USC, UCLA, and Washington State. The Wildcats are a bona fide contender, ranking No. 15 in KenPom while checking in at 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Washington is a middling team at 5-6 in conference play. Hopkins’ side has struggled to find much consistency this season, looking great at some moments and entirely mortal in others. The advanced numbers don’t believe in this team, as the Huskies check in at No. 104 in KenPom. The offense leaves a lot to be desired, ranking 152nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, while the defense ranks 77th in adjusted efficiency.
I’m not a fan of Washington’s wins this season. Beating Saint Mary’s back on November 25 was by far the best this team has played. Other than that win, it’s hardly a murderer’s row of opponents.
The Huskies have been beaten down pretty badly when facing other good teams, losing by 23 to Auburn and 25 to UCLA. They were able to keep things close in a 70-67 loss to the Wildcats on January 5, but the current spread for the rematch tells you just about how much stock the oddsmakers are putting into that results.
The Wildcats are simply much better on both sides of the ball. They have better players, are better coached, and are the better program. The Wildcats are averaging nearly 13 more points per game than the Huskies while checking in 135 spots higher in adjusted offensive efficiency.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona ranks 33rd in field goal defense (40.1%) and 92nd in 3-point defense (31.5%), both numbers far better than Washington — 253rd in field goal defense (43.2%) and 284th in three-point defense (32.2%).
Give me the Wildcats to keep rolling. I’d lay the points up to -10.
My best bet: Arizona -9 (-110 at BetRivers)
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Arizona vs Washington spread analysis
This line is quickly moving in Arizona’s direction. The Wildcats opened at -7 but can currently be had at -9 or -9.5 depending on the location.
The Wildcats are just 8-12-1 ATS this season, as they’ve been overvalued at times. I’m not sure that’s the case here in a spot in which they are better than their opponents in just about every facet of the game.
A pair of fantastic big men lead the way in Azuolas Tubelis (19.8 ppg) and Oumar Ballo (15.4 ppg). The two combined for 33 points in the first meetings and will likely continue to find success against a Washington defense ranked 254th in 2-point field goal defense.
Actually, I’d be surprised if Zona’s two big men don’t show out in this spot. The Huskies have a deficiency in protecting the painted area, ranking 240th in near-proximity defense according to Haslametrics.com.
The road team has typically gotten the upper hand in this matchup, going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Arizona vs Washington Over/Under analysis
It shouldn’t be shocking news that the total in an Arizona game is set above 150. At the time of this writing, the total ranges from 150.5 to 152.
Arizona averages 82.3 ppg while shooting a blistering 48.6% from the field, which ranks 20th nationally. Tubelis and Ballo lead the charge and are the focal points of the offense for good reason, as few college teams possess the size, discipline, and depth required to guard them for 40 minutes. Kerr Kriisa, Courtney Ramey, and Pelle Larsson all average double figures in the backcourt.
Washington’s offensive attack is spearheaded by Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks, who averages 17.6 ppg. Downtown sniper Cole Bajema (10.1 ppg) is the only other player averaging double figures. The Huskies are a poor shooting team overall both inside and outside the arc.
Arizona’s defense has been playing very well lately, surrendering just 58.7 ppg in its last three outings. There’s been a renewed defensive intensity since the Oregon meltdown, as Lloyd was not about to let that sort of performance continue over the long haul. The Wildcats should continue finding success here against a miserable Huskies offense.
I will be on the Under and considered making it my best bet for this column. I’d play it down to 149.5.
Arizona vs Washington betting trend to know
The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools.. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Washington.
Arizona vs Washington game info
|Location:||Alaska Airlines Arena, Seattle, WA|
|Date:||Saturday, January 28, 2023|
|Tip-off:||5:30 p.m. ET|