Warriors vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: No Kidding, Dubs Win on Road

The Warriors finally won on the road, and the reeling Mavericks should allow them a chance to do it again. See why our NBA picks are fading the unfolding disaster in Dallas.

Last Updated: Mar 22, 2023 3:13 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jason Kidd NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors (37-36) finally put an end to their 11-game road losing streak with a win on Monday over the bottom-dwelling Rockets, and will look to parlay that into just their second instance of consecutive road wins this season when they face off against the Dallas Mavericks (36-36). Dallas has lost nine of 13, and is now just one game out from dropping out of the final play-in spot.

Which team can make the best of its recent struggles and get a much-needed win as the regular season winds down?

Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Warriors vs. Mavericks matchup on Wednesday, March 22nd.

Warriors vs Mavericks best odds

Warriors vs Mavericks picks and predictions

The Warriors’ struggles on the road have been well-documented this season, and for good reason. They’ve managed just an 8-29 away record, which encapsulates separate losing streaks of eight and 11 — the latter of which they just snapped on Monday night.

They’ve also managed to win back-to-back road games just once this season in seven attempts, a seemingly monumental feat they will try to achieve on Wednesday night against the Mavericks.

They split the two prior meetings this year, but tonight’s game has a bit of extra juice, with just a half-game separating the two in the standings and just 2.5 games separating the fourth and the 12th seeds.

The Mavericks have seemingly done everything they can to try to end up on the wrong side of that spectrum, having now lost nine of their last 13. During that span, their offense has hummed along just fine, ranking eighth in offensive rating.

However, their defense has essentially fallen apart entirely. Their D-rating of 118.7 during those 13 games is fifth-worst, and while that may not look drastically worse than the eighth-worst rating they managed prior to that point, the actual statistical deviation is more noteworthy.

Prior to those 13 games, they held a defensive rating of 115.4 on the season. Defense tends to deteriorate in the final stretches of the regular season, and that prior mark of 115.4 would rank 18th during this 13-game stretch that goes back to February 11th. Conversely, their 118.7 defensive rating during this time would rank second-worst on the full season.

This comes a season after Jason Kidd predictably received a lot of applause for defensive strides made in his first year with the Mavericks — a mark that (again predictably) was never matched in the consequent season, much like his previous stops with the Bucks and Nets. And (again predictably), he has begun to throw his players further and further under the bus.

There may not be much to be inspired about when it comes to the Warriors playing on the road, but there is much less to be inspired about when it comes to Jason Kidd these days.

My best bet: Warriors -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Warriors vs Mavericks spread analysis

The spread opened with the Warriors as two-point favorites and it has since moved slightly more in favor of Golden State.

Golden State is 34-38-1 against the spread this year, good for tenth-worst cover rate on the season at 47.2%. As expected, their splits on the road are much worse. On the road they are a league-worst 9-27 against the spread (25.0%), and as road favorites they have gone 4-13 (23.5%) - the latter which is only fourth-worst this year.

The Warriors spread record has been decent against the Western Conference (given their struggles on the road), managing a 21-23 record in that split (47.7%). However, they have managed to cover just once in their last four, and in just three of their last eight.

The Mavericks have been horrendous against the spread this year, having gone 27-42-3 (39.1%) and only trailing the Heat when it comes to cover rate. They've had no bite as home underdogs, going just 1-3-1 against the spread — the lowest cover rate in that split.

Despite their extensive struggles in the win-loss column as of late, they have managed to cover three straight. Prior to that, however, they managed to cover just three of their previous nine.

Warriors vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 233.5 and has since moved to as high as 236 at some books, with some books still showing totals of 234-234.5. Shopping for the right number will be pivotal if the market continues to hold a wide range on the number.

The Warriors have gone 40-30-3 to the Over this year, possessing the fourth-highest rate of Overs this year at 57.1%. On the road, their 71.4% Over rate (25-10-1) is the league's best by a respectable margin. As away favorites, they’ve gone 12-4-1 (75.0%) to the Over.

Golden State has gone 5-2-1 to the Over in their last eight. If tonight's total lands at 236, the Warriors would be playing in a projected scoring environment in which they have gone 12-10 to the Over.

Dallas has also played favorably to the Over, having gone 38-33-1. Their 53.5% Over rate ranks eighth in the league on the year. At home, they’ve gone 21-14-1 that way, good for a 60.0% rate.

As home underdogs, however, they’ve gone 4-1 to the Under. They have also favored the Under as of late, having gone 5-1-1 in their last six that way. The Mavs have logged just four games at or above a 236 total, and have gone 3-1 to the Over in those games.

Warriors vs Mavericks betting trend to know

The Mavericks have the second-worst ATS record this year at 27-42-3, and the worst cover rate as home underdogs (1-3-1). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Mavericks.

Warriors vs Mavericks game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Wednesday, March 22, 2023
Tip-off: 7:30 pm ET

Warriors vs Mavericks key injuries

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