Warriors vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Memphis Continues Rise to Prominence With Dub Over Dubs

Playoffs are just around the corner and both the Warriors and Grizzlies will be leaning on their reserves tonight while the stars get some rest. However, the Grizz are next level without Ja Morant which is why we have them covering the NBA betting spread.

Last Updated: Mar 28, 2022 2:58 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
Desmond Bane Memphis Grizzlies NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Condolences to anyone who had advanced tickets to tonight’s matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies, hoping to see a star-studded showdown. 

It looks like neither side will be with its standouts, with Golden State likely to sit its starters and the Grizzlies going forward without Ja Morant and maybe more Monday night. That has books rolling out a 10-point spread for this game, giving the nod to the host side.

Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Grizzlies on March 28.

Warriors vs Grizzlies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The opening spread had Memphis giving 6.5 points but with Golden State expected to sit its stars in the second night of back-to-back games, this line has ballooned to as big as Grizzlies -11. The total has also seen a major adjustment, dropping from 225 points to as low as 221 before some buyback on the Over moving it to 221.5 or 222.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Warriors vs Grizzlies predictions

Predictions made on 3/28/2022 at 2:21 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Warriors vs Grizzlies game info

Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Date: Monday, March 28, 2022
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET

Warriors vs Grizzlies betting preview

Key injuries

Warriors: Stephen Curry G (Out), Draymond Green F (Questionable), Klay Thompson G (Questionable), Andre Iguodala F (Questionable), Otto Porter F (Questionable), James Wiseman C (Out).
Grizzlies: Ja Morant G (Out), Jaren Jackson F (Questionable), Brandon Clarke F (Questionable), Killian Tillie F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Grizzlies are 28-17 ATS as favorites this season, including 7-3 ATS as double-digit chalk. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Grizzlies.

Warriors vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Yikes, navigating this point spread is a tough ask for even the most hardened NBA bettor. Memphis has fought without Morant in the lineup, winning four in a row and covering in each of those games including mopping Houston and Indiana as double-digit chalk.

Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. played a big role in those efforts but enters tonight with soreness in his thigh. The 6-foot-11 stopper is vital to his team's success in the postseason and they could opt to rest him given Golden State is marching out its bench. Memphis has monster games ahead against Phoenix, Utah, and Denver and holds a four-game lead over the Warriors for the No. 2 spot in the West.

The Warriors are on a two-game slide and have lost five of their last six despite the recent return of Draymond Green. A current five-game road trip, which wraps in Memphis tonight, has amplified the Dubs’ defensive issues this month. They entered March with the league’s best advanced defensive rating at 104.5 but have watched that metric swell to 115.8 over the last 14 contests.

Even without Morant at the wheel, Memphis has produced points. The Grizzlies have actually increased their tempo in those last four games while boasting an effective field goal rate of 57.8% - well above their season average of 52.2%. Desmond Bane, De'Anthony Melton, and Dillon Brooks have all stepped up to fill the scoring gap, each averaging 20 or more points per game in that stretch.

A motivated Memphis squad is a contrast to Steve Kerr’s crew, which will be looking past this final road game and ahead to showdowns with Phoenix and Utah at home later this week. We’re more confident the Grizz can bust this big spread than the Warriors’ scrubs can stay within it.

Prediction: Grizzlies -10 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Despite the Warriors parking Green and Klay Thomson tonight, this total has jumped down about 3.5 points – tempered by the potential absence of Memphis’ rim protector Jaren Jackson Jr. but also some capable backup bodies for Golden State.

In situations where the Dubs have sat their standouts, guys like Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, and Damion Lee have stepped up and made the most of extra floor time. Poole, specifically, has been on absolute fire the past month, averaging 24.6 points in March – about a 10-point jump in production over his season averages.

Given the Grizzlies haven’t let up on offense without Morant and Golden State’s depth is better than most – ranked third in bench minutes – this game still packs plenty of firepower regardless of its lack of star power. 

Prediction: Over 221.5 (-110)

Best bet

With Stephen Curry out of action and the Warrior's other two stalwarts likely resting tonight, you’d think the stage would be set for Andrew Wiggins to have a big effort. He is coming off an 8-for-14 night, scoring 23 points in 35 minutes against the lowly Wizards on Sunday.

The fact is Wiggins has been terribly inconsistent this month, topping the 20-point plateau only three times while bookending respectable scoring efforts with single-digit doldrums. Wiggins has even seen his minutes hacked at the cost of Steve Kerr experimenting with different rotations, playing only 22 listless minutes in the loss in Atlanta last Friday. 

Kerr benched Wiggins late in the game and rolled out a line of Poole, Thompson, Lee, Gary Payton II, and Kevon Looney. That mixture helped Golden State outscore the Hawks 27-20 in the fourth quarter.

Coach Kerr could keep experimenting tonight considering this contest looks like a "throwaway", given there are some massive games ahead and postseason planning needed if this defense can’t get right before the playoffs.   

Wiggins is averaging only 15 points per game on 41% shooting this month and has scored more than 18 points just three times. With a spread this big and the potential for a Memphis rout, Wiggins could be used sparingly in the second half anyway. 

Pick: Andrew Wiggins Under 18.5 points (-110)

NBA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Warriors vs. Grizzlies predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $59.58 on a $10 bet?

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