Hawks vs Pacers Picks and Predictions: Indiana Withstands Trae Young Onslaught

Both Atlanta and Indiana come into this game limping with big names missing, however, we can see the home team covering such a large NBA betting spread. Find out why in our Hawks vs. Pacers picks and predictions.

Last Updated: Mar 28, 2022 5:36 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Tyrese Haliburton Indiana Pacers NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Hawks (37-37, 10th in East) have struggled a year removed from their Eastern Conference Finals appearance last summer, and are looking to find their footing ahead of their play-in appearance. In the final stretch of games, Atlanta can improve to the eighth seed, which would give it two chances to advance to the playoffs as opposed to playing in the 9 vs. 10 elimination game. On Monday night it will face off against the Indiana Pacers (25-50, 13th in East) who have had a tumultuous season in Rick Carlisle's first year as head coach.

Find out who we're backing in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Hawks vs. Pacers matchup on Monday, March 28th. 

Hawks vs Pacers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Atlanta opened as 7-point favorites and have since moved to -8.0. The total has seen a lot of movement, opening at 235 and seeing initial movement to 234 before climbing up to 236.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Hawks vs Pacers predictions

Predictions made on 3/28/2022 at 4:39 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Hawks vs Pacers game info

Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Date: Monday, March 28, 2022
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Indiana, Bally Sports Southeast-ATL

Hawks vs Pacers betting preview

Key injuries

Hawks: John Collins F (Out), Bogdan Bogdanovic G (Questionable), Danilo Gallinari F (Questionable), Skylar Mays G (Questionable).
Pacers: Myles Turner C (Out), Malcolm Brogdon G (Out), Chris Duarte G (Out), Goga Bitadze C (Questionable), Isaiah Jackson F (Out), Duane Washington G (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Hawks have failed to cover seven straight times as favorites of five or more points. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Pacers.

Hawks vs Pacers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

When Rick Carlisle signed on to be the Pacers' head coach, he likely did not envision an inaugural season that looked anything close to this one given that Indiana will likely finish with less than 30 wins and it has entirely turned over the core of its roster. But with those pitfalls has come an optimistic eye towards the future.

The sending off of Domantas Sabonis, Justin Holiday, and Jeremy Lamb netted it arguably one of the brightest young players in the league in Tyrese Haliburton as well as Buddy Hield, a knockdown shooter who has managed 15.9 points per game and a 39.8% 3-point percentage over his career.

It also netted a 2022 first-round pick from the Cavaliers in return for Caris LeVert, a pick combined with its own that can help build Indiana back into a contender.

And to that latter point, the Pacers are doing everything in their power to ensure that pick of theirs is as good as it can get. They have seven players listed as out for tonight's game and two more listed as questionable.

That includes the likes of Myles Turner (who will now be shut down for the remainder of the season), Malcolm Brogdon, and Chris Duarte. Outside of Haliburton and Hield, the Pacers will largely have a skeleton crew taking the court against the Hawks.

Atlanta is facing injury troubles as well, but less conspicuous ones given that it is firmly in the mix of the Eastern Conference play-in spots.

John Collins is out with a separated finger and foot issues and its perimeter presence is a little shaken up with Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari both day-to-day and carrying questionable tags heading into tonight.

If both miss tonight's game, their combined 11.4 3-point attempts per game will likely have to fall in less efficient hands.

What makes their potential absences even more problematic for tonight's game is how Atlanta fares on the defensive end, ranking 26th in the league in defensive rating. Its defensive woes have largely been the reason why it will likely find itself in the play-in tournament just a year removed from an Eastern Conference Finals appearance.

And that was the case in the last matchup between these two, when the Hawks let in 128 points to a similar skeleton crew of Haliburton, Hield, and reserves that shot 43% from three and 52% from the field.

Atlanta walked away with just a three-point win that night but leaned heavily on both Gallinari and Bogdanovic who chipped in 28 and Trae Young contributing a monstrous 47-point performance on 13 of 20 (7-10 3point) shooting.

Prediction: Pacers +8 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Both teams have played to the Under as of late, with Atlanta going 4-2 that way in its last six and the Pacers playing 4-0-1 that way in their last five.

However, tonight is the perfect scenario for both teams to get firing on the Over again seeing as Atlanta ranks 26th in defensive rating and Indiana 27th, With all the injuries both teams will be reaching deep into their depth to get some heavy minutes covered.

Plus these two have gone Over the total in all three previous matchups and prior to these stretches of Unders the Hawks played 11-7 to the Over in their previous 18 and the Pacers played 18-5 to the Over in their previous 23.

Indiana also plays at a much higher pace since its roster overhaul at the trade deadline, jumping from 19th to 11th in pace. Atlanta plays at around a league-average pace, but as previously mentioned, its offense tends to get more out of possessions that the vast majority of teams.

Prediction: Over 236.5 (-110)

Best bet

Although this game certainly features two teams with very different levels of motivation, the structure of the actual matchup makes it hard for Atlanta to build and sustain a sizable enough lead to comfortably cover the modestly large spread.

Its defense simply lets in too many points, and the proof is in the pudding: The Hawks have failed to cover seven straight times as favorites of five or more points.

Sure the Pacers have nothing to really play for but Rick Carlisle has never been the type of coach to let his team lie down and die. They are coming off of two consecutive losses of 30-plus points but despite how putrid Indiana has been this season, it has never lost three straight games by double digits.

It's reasonable to expect the Hawks to win, but expect the Pacers to score at a frequent enough pace to keep it within the number.

Pick: Pacers +8 (-110)

NBA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Hawks vs. Pacers predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

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