Warriors vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Giannis and Bucks Hold Down Homecourt

We get a potential NBA Finals matchup on Thursday night when Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors visit Giannis Antetokounmpo and the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks.

But both teams enter this matchup in a bit of a slump with the Warriors dropping three of their last four games and the Bucks four of their last five. So, while the Bucks are slight home favorites who has the edge in this matchup of title contenders?

Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Bucks on January 13.

Warriors vs Bucks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Bucks opened this matchup as 2.5-point home favorites, but it is the Warriors seeing the early money, moving the line down to 1.5. The total hit the board at 223 and rose as high as 224.5 before coming back down to the current number of 223.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Warriors vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 223.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Curry Over 4.5 made threes (+120)

Predictions made on 1/13/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Warriors vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Thursday, January 13, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Warriors vs Bucks betting preview

Injuries

Warriors: Draymond Green PF (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Bucks: Jrue Holiday PG (Out), Brook Lopez (Out), George Hill (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 23-9 in the Warriors' last 32 games following a SU loss and 4-1 in the Bucks' last five overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Bucks.

Warriors vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Bucks come into this game hoping to get right. They have lost four of their last five games, which includes back-to-back losses for the Charlotte Hornets thanks to an offense that hasn’t been able to support Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.

But that was due in part to the Bucks missing a bunch of pieces to COVID and injuries. And while it sounds like point guard Jrue Holiday will miss another game (more on that later), they do get back Grayson Allen after getting back Pat Connaughton the night before.

The Warriors, on the other hand, have welcomed back Klay Thompson but have also lost three of four. It’s no coincidence that the Warriors are struggling with Steph Curry in his worst shooting slump of the year and Draymond Green injured.

While Curry can get hot at any time, the injury to Green is big. Everyone knows about what he brings to the defensive end of the floor, but he may be even more missed on offense, and not for scoring. Green is the Warriors' best facilitator and distributor and gives Curry a break off the ball. Without him, the ball movement can be sluggish at times.

On top of that, it appears the Dubs are still letting Thompson ease into the season, as he has played just about 20 minutes in each of his first two games. 

Holiday not being back to cover Curry is big, but with the Bucks getting mostly healthy and being at home, they should be able to pull off the win going against the Warriors without Green and a limited Thompson.  

Prediction: Bucks -1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Even though each team is missing its best defender for this matchup the total still looks a little too high.

The Warriors rank first in defensive rating this season, and while they will be without their quarterback in Green, they have a ton of long wings they can throw at Giannis. Obviously, you’ll never stop the Greek Freak entirely, but Golden State should do a decent job of slowing him down.

On top of that, outside of Antetokounmpo and Middleton, the Bucks have been struggling to shoot the ball well. 

Meanwhile, the Warriors are averaging just 95.5 points per game during their four-game mini-slump and face a Bucks defense that is getting healthy and still ranks eighth overall in defensive rating.

Bet on this one to sneak Under the number.

Prediction: Under 223.5 (-110)

Best bet

So, yeah. Steph is in a slump. He’s just 8-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range over his last four games. But do you really think he’ll stay cold for long? And that just means we are getting some value with his made threes prop today.

The number for this one is set at 4.5, a number he eclipsed 16 times in his previous 20 games before his current slump. 

Now, he faces a Bucks team without its best perimeter defender, and maybe the best in the NBA, in Holiday, not to mention backup George Hill (a solid defender in his own right) and you're giving me plus money? Sign me up.

Pick: Steph Curry Over 4.5 made threes (+120)

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