Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s NBA Game

Shawn Krest - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Shawn Krest • Betting Analyst 20+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 15, 2026 , 11:31 AM ET • 4 min read

Our Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions expect OKC to win and cover at home.

NBA

Match starts: 4 mins
MIN
57 %
OKC
43 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
Oklahoma City -7.5 (-105) Oklahoma City -7.5 (-105)
Read Analysis
Ajay Mitchell Oklahoma City Thunder NBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Ajay Mitchell drives to the hoop against the Nuggets.

Are the Oklahoma City Thunder hot or not? With seven straight wins, OKC has its longest win streak since winning 16 in a row during its 24-1 start to the season. However, the Thunder have failed to cover in all seven games.

That changes today. Minnesota is finishing a road trip and may be without MVP candidate Anthony Edwards, who's dealing with a bad knee. My Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks see the Thunder getting a cover as they win again.

Timberwolves vs Thunder prediction

Timberwolves vs Thunder best bet: Thunder -7.5 (-105)

The Minnesota Timberwolves snapped a three-game losing streak — both straight up and ATS — with a win at Golden State. However, they've failed to cover in the game following a victory 60% of the time this season.

Minnesota has been this large an underdog just one other time this season, and that was also against the Oklahoma City Thunder. They've covered in all three games against the Thunder this year, but the teams haven’t played in a month and a half. 

Since then, Minnesota has gone 6-12 ATS. OKC had been 8-3 ATS since that game before the current, puzzling 7-game streak.

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Timberwolves vs Thunder same-game parlay

OKC plays at the No. 18 pace in the league. Minnesota is at No. 10. Lately, both teams seem to have slowed things down. OKC has gone Under five of the last six games, including two games with cutoffs below 220. Minnesota has gone Under in six of the last eight, including two with a points cutoff lower than today’s.

Ajay Mitchell faces the prospect of having to defend against a Minnesota team that's either missing Anthony Edwards or he’ll be guarding a hobbled Edwards. That should free him up to spend more energy on the other end of the floor, where he’s scored at least 15 in four of the last five.

Timberwolves vs Thunder SGP

  • Thunder -7.5
  • Under 226.5
  • Ajay Mitchell Over 13.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Ajay Against Ayo!

Edwards is a game-time decision. If he doesn’t play, Ayo Dosunmu will likely see an increase in shots. Even if Edwards plays, Dosunmu has scored in double digits in four of the last five and remains a good pick to go Over.

OKC center Isaiah Hartenstein is day-to-day with a calf injury. That means Chet Holmgren will need to handle more of the work in the paint. He’s pulled down 58 rebounds in the last five games, so getting 9+ against a Minnesota team that ranks No. 19 in the league in offensive rebounding seems likely.

Timberwolves vs Thunder SGP

  • Under 226.5
  • Ajay Mitchell Over 13.5 points
  • Ayo Dosunmu Over 10.5 points
  • Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds

Timberwolves vs Thunder odds

  • Spread: Timberwolves +8.5 | Thunder -8.5
  • Moneyline: Timberwolves +275 | Thunder -320
  • Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5

Timberwolves vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Thunder have gone Under their team total in 13 of their 17 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Thunder.

How to watch Timberwolves vs Thunder

Location Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Date Sunday, March 15, 2026
Tip-off 1:00 p.m. ET
TV ABC

Timberwolves vs Thunder latest injuries

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Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst

Since quitting his job as bank assistant vice-president in 2000, Shawn has covered Final Fours, Super Bowls, World Series games and title fights in boxing and UFC. His work has appeared on ESPN, MLB.com, Sports Illustrated and dozens of other outlets. His book, Baseball Meat Market was published in 2018. He lives in North Carolina with his dog Toby, eight turtles, and wife.

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