The Phoenix Suns (20-21) have struggled quite mightily in Devin Booker's absence, who has been out since an untimely injury early on in their Christmas Day game. Phoenix was 19-13 prior to that game but has since gone 1-7 — which includes its current six-game losing streak.
Tonight it will begin a four-game Western Conference road trip, which begins with a date with the Golden State Warriors (20-20) — who have fared much better in the wake of Stephen Curry's injury which has sidelined him since December 14.
The Dubs have won five of their last seven, and luckily for them, the Chef will make his long-awaited return tonight.
Will Curry's return help the Warriors secure a pivotal home win, or will Phoenix snap its six-game losing streak?
Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Suns vs. Warriors matchup on January 10.
Suns vs Warriors best odds
Suns vs Warriors picks and predictions
The nationally-televised matchup between the Suns and Warriors on Wednesday night will feature the last two winners of the Western Conference, but it will be without each team's superstar.
Booker's injury has netted Phoenix a 1-7 record in his absence and the third-worst net rating during that span (-6.9). It's dead last in offensive rating (107.0) during that time, a product of its third-worst turnover rate (16.6%) and 25th-ranked true shooting percentage (55.5%).
The Dubs have certainly fared better during Curry's absence in the win-loss column, having gone 6-5 since, but a deeper dive into the metrics suggests that they are not actually far behind the Suns' current form.
They rank 25th in net rating (-4.5) and 27th in offensive rating (27th), while also struggling to take care of the ball (25th in turnover rate). The lack of Steph's gravity has expectedly made things tougher for the Golden State's shooters, ranking 17th in true shooting percentage in his absence as opposed to ranking fifth as a team prior to his injury.
To again highlight how similar these superstar-less versions of these have been: the Warriors have had the highest assist percentage during this Curry absence and Phoenix has had the third-highest during Booker's. Golden State has a little below average on defense (21st in defensive rating) while the Suns have been exactly league-average (15th).
No matter which way you look at Tuesday's matchup, the teams have been eerily close in just about every facet of the game. With the Warriors playing from home on Tuesday, they should have been favored by just a few points before accounting for Curry's return.
After missing 11 games, it's likely the reigning Finals MVP will be on a minutes restriction, so that begs the question — is that version and limited availability of Curry worth nearly ten points on its own? Likely not.
My best bet: Suns +12.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Looking to do some NBA betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at Caesars can get a risk-free bet of up to $1,250! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Suns vs Warriors spread analysis
The spread opened with the Warriors as 12-point favorites but most shops have moved down a half-point to -11.5.
Phoenix's against the spread record mirrors its straight up record at 20-21, and its misfortunes SU have been mirrored against the number as of late: the Suns have covered just once in their last six.
As road underdogs, they are 5-4 ATS this year and as underdogs of five or more points, they are 2-1 ATS — winning one of those games SU as a +250 underdog.
The Warriors are 18-21-1 ATS this year, good for the ninth-worst cover rate in the league at 46.2%, and their -3.1 average margin ATS is the worst in the league. They have fared much better as home favorites, having gone 10-6-1 (62.5%) in that split.
Golden State has gone 5-6 against the spread in Curry's absence and has failed to cover a spread of -5 or higher in its last four attempts and lost three of those games SU, games in which it was favorites of -245, -250, and -733 respectively.
Suns vs Warriors Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 227.5 and has since moved to 229 or higher across the market.
The Suns are 22-18-1 to the Under this year, the fourth-highest rate of Unders in the league at 55.0%. On the road they have been more Over friendly, going 10-9-1 that way (52.6%) and as underdogs, they have just slightly favored Overs (7-6).
But heading into Tuesday night they are carrying a streak of five straight Unders, with the last four of those totals being sub-220. In totals at or above tonight's mark, they have gone 4-3 to the Over.
Golden State has gone 22-17-1 to the Over, good for the tenth-highest rate of Overs at 56.4%. As a favorite, it has gone 14-10-1 that way (58.3%) but at home, it has gone 13-8 to the Under (38.1%, tied for the third-highest rate).
The Warriors have gone Under the total in five of their last seven, but had gone Over the total in six straight prior to that. Each of their totals during that span have been over 230 and their average total during that time has been 234.
Suns vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Warriors have the worst average margin ATS this year at -3.1. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Warriors.
Suns vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 10, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
