When you’re covering NBA betting in the midst of March Madness, you kind of feel like you’re missing out on the craziest party of the year.
But there is a silver lining to being stuck with the pros while the basketball world is consumed with the college kids: your rough patch of NBA player props goes somewhat unnoticed, including a ho-hum 2-2 record Wednesday night.
With the bulk of basketball bettors two-stepping in the Big Dance, I’m electric sliding through a five-game slate in the Association and giving my best NBA player prop picks and predictions for March 16.
NBA player props for March 16
Picks made on 3/16/2023 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Motown minutes
The Detroit Pistons haven’t had to worry about blatantly tanking in recent games thanks to a rash of injuries that has pretty much sidelined every major rotation player.
Detroit will get a starter back tonight in Jaden Ivey, who’s missed the past three games due to the league’s health and safety protocols.
The Pistons were down their Top-6 scorers on the season, with Ivey sitting third on the team with just over 15 points per game. He’ll see major minutes and a spike in touches tonight as those other leading point-getters remain sidelined.
Ivey last played against Charlotte on February 9, shooting 5-for-17 and finishing with 16 points. He had 26 points against Washington in the game prior, knocking down 9 of 20, including 3-for-6 from beyond the arc.
Before missing those three games due to illness, Ivey was having a sound second half of the schedule. Since February, he’s upped his points to 16.4 per game while attempting 13.5 field goal attempts, including 5.4 shots from beyond the arc (vs. 15.1 ppg on 12.4 FGA, 4.1 3PA in the first four months).
Ivey’s point total for tonight doesn’t reflect the dire situation for Detroit’s roster, with books dealing his scoring prop at 17.5 — around the same O/U number he’s faced in the previous three outings. He’ll lead the charge for the Pistons’ skeleton crew tonight.
Jaden Ivey prop: Over 17.5 points (-125)
Sunshine shootout
The Orlando Magic come to the desert to clash with the Phoenix Suns in a non-conference contest.
The Suns are in a three-game swoon, thanks to Kevin Durant’s absence as well as a defensive nosedive during this skid. Phoenix has allowed more than 122 points per game with a defensive rating slightly better than tightly grouped rusty lawn chairs.
The Magic have found themselves in high-scoring affairs in recent outings, also due to dreadful defense. Orlando has tried to counter that with a quicker pace on offense and is leaning into rookie star Paolo Banchero, who has answered the call.
Banchero is averaging 24.5 points over his last six outings, shooting 46.5% from the field in that span. He’s coming off a 27-point effort in the loss to San Antonio on Tuesday, going 11 for 21 from the floor, including 2 for 4 from 3-point range.
The 6-foot-10 Duke product is a matchup nightmare for most teams and could really feast on a Phoenix roster that traded away the bulk of its defensive stoppers in the Durant deal. The Suns are running especially thin up front since Durant went down, leaving Deandre Ayton surrounded by 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-7 forwards in the starting lineup.
Banchero’s scoring prop for tonight is at 19.5 points, which is on the lower end of his recent point total projections. He’s surpassed his points prop in five of his last six games and drops 20 or more in the desert tonight.
Paolo Banchero prop: Over 19.5 points (-105)
Dino-mite!
The Toronto Raptors welcome the up-tempo offense of the Oklahoma City Thunder, meaning Raps center Jakob Poeltl is going to have a busy night protecting the paint.
The Thunder are relentless when it comes to getting to the rim, owning the highest drive rate in the NBA and recording the third most points in the paint per game. That interior attack has also led to OKC seeing 5.6 shots sent back per contest — third most blocks given up.
The 7-foot-1 Poeltl averages 1.7 blocks since coming over to Toronto at the trade deadline and has recorded at least two swats in three of six games this month. He also has quick hands on the defensive end, with 1.7 steals an outing in his time north of the border, with two or more swipes in seven of his 13 games in a Raptors jersey.
We get plus-money on the Over for either 1.5 steals or 1.5 blocks from Poeltl tonight, but we’ll combine those two defensive stats and go Over 2.5 on his combo prop at -114.
Poeltl recently recorded a block and three steals against the L.A. Lakers, who also push a similar up-tempo pace in transition and rely on points in the paint. In fact, Poeltl has topped his combo prop for blocks + steals in back-to-back games and in seven of his last 10 contests overall.
This matchup with the Thunder sets the table perfectly to showcase Poeltl's defensive prowess.
Jakob Poeltl prop: Over 2.5 blocks + steals (-114)
