Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Duren Dominates in Dallas

Pistons rookie Jalen Duren is going up against one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, but with his rebounding total juiced, we're looking elsewhere for betting value. Find out more in our best NBA player prop picks for January 30.

Last Updated: Jan 30, 2023 2:06 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jalen Duren Detroit Pistons NBA
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A new week of actions kicks off with eight games on the NBA odds board, which means there is no shortage of value to be found in the NBA player prop market.

Tonight, we look at an undervalued Kings sharpshooter, a Bay Area superstar who's shaken off some injury rust, and a Pistons rookie who's been filling up the stat sheet in recent weeks.

Check out my best NBA player prop picks for Monday, January 30 below. 

NBA player props for January 30

Picks made on 1/30/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Sacramento's second sniper

Rookie Keegan Murray has been a great compliment to the Sacramento Kings’ high-octane offense.

The rookie out of Iowa gives the Kings another sharpshooter to go alongside Kevin Huerter and to support De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Murray will have a great chance to let it fly tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Murray has been absolutely on fire since the calendar flipped to 2023. Over the last 14 games, he's hitting a ridiculous 50.6% of his 6.4 threes per game. And tonight he’ll go against one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending the 3-ball.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a great presence in the middle with Rudy Gobert, but the team really struggles on the perimeter. Minnesota ranks 21st in opponent 3-point attempts allowed per game and 25th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

Now, Murray went just 2 of 6 from beyond the arc when these teams met just back on Saturday night. Prior to that, Murray had hit three or more threes nine times in his previous 12 games. Murray should get plenty of opportunities to jack it up and the even money makes the Over 2.5 very worthwhile.

Keegan Murray prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+100)

Spicy Curry

It looks like Steph Curry has shaken off the rust from a shoulder injury that cost him 11 games between mid-December and early January. After looking a little off when he first returned, Curry is now averaging 33 points over his last five games while shooting 42.1% from 3-point range.

Curry will have a great chance to continue getting buckets when he and the Golden State Warriors visit the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC has been an extremely fun team to follow this season, but it certainly has its flaws. One of those flaws is containing opposing guards.

While overall, the Thunder are a solid team defensively, they give up a ton of looks to opposing guards. In fact, OKC allows the second-most field goal attempts and points per game to opposing guards this season. On top of that, they surrender the most 3-point attempts and second-most 3-point makes per game to opposing guards in the NBA.

Recently, they have given up big nights to guards Darius Garland, Trae Young, Jamal Murray, and De’Aaron Fox. Those guys averaged 28.8 points per game.

Simply put, this matchup is right in Curry’s wheelhouse. So, I’m backing him to cook and go Over his 27.5-point total — a number he's gone Over in four of his last five games.

Steph Curry prop: Over 27.5 points (-115)

Jalen fills it up

The Detroit Pistons' season is obviously not going as planned, particularly due to the season-ending injury to Cade Cunningham, but there are two benefits. One: they’ll have a chance to add another piece to an exciting young core. And two, they can develop some of the pieces already in the building. 

One of those pieces is rookie center Jalen Duren. The 13th overall pick out of Memphis has shown some great potential lately. Duren is averaging 10.7 points and 11 rebounds per game over his last 20 contests. He could be in for a big night against the Dallas Mavericks.

The Mavericks are having a real problem on the glass, ranking dead last in rebounding rate, making Duren a great candidate to go Over his rebounding total. But with it set at 9.5 and juiced to the Over, let’s take a look at his odds to record a double-double, which comes at a much nicer price of +200.

Duren has eight double-doubles over this 20-game stretch, and he’s had several more where he’s come up a bucket or rebound short. He’s put up 11 or more points five times in the last six games and has three double-doubles over that span.

In a matchup against an undersized Mavs team still without Christian Wood, Duren should have his way in the paint.

Jalen Duren prop: To record a double-double (+200)

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