This was supposed to be the Philadelphia 76ers’ year. Joel Embiid was coming off an MVP season, and despite his dominant play, new head coach Nick Nurse was brought in to take Embiid and the Sixers to the next level. Which meant a deep playoff run.
The early returns were promising. Somehow Embiid looked to be even better than he did in his MVP campaign, Tyrese Maxey looked like a budding superstar, and Philly was winning a lot of games while standing among the favorites in the NBA championship odds.
Then the other shoe dropped. Embiid hurt his knee and now the Sixers are praying he can make it back in time for the playoffs. So, suddenly a team that looked like a lock to make the playoffs now has a much murkier future.
The NBA odds still have the 76ers favored to make the playoffs. Can they survive until Embiid gets back? Or is there value in fading the Sixers in the second half?
Philadelphia 76ers odds to make playoffs
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| -750 | +490 |
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbooks on February 21, 2024
Philadelphia 76ers season at a glance
After years of disappointing playoff runs, the Philadelphia 76ers parted ways with head coach Doc Rivers and turned the keys over to Nick Nurse.
The former Toronto Raptors bench boss not only had a championship pedigree but he also had the ability to revolutionize the 76ers offense and how to best utilize Joel Embiid’s talents. Even though he was coming off an MVP season.
The early returns were impressive. The Sixers stormed out of the gate this season winning eight of their first nine games and were 29-13 near the end of January. Embiid was putting up a career-high 35.3 points per game while adding 11.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game.
Then shortly after, Embiid sat out a big game against the Denver Nuggets with knee discomfort, where he would have faced off against his biggest rival for the MVP award in Nikola Jokic. He missed the game that followed before trying to tough out a matchup against the Golden State Warriors on Jan. 30.
But you could clearly see something was wrong and Embiid was forced to leave the game early. Well, it turns out he had a torn meniscus and has been out ever since.
The Sixers struggled without their star center and lost five of their last seven games heading into the All-Star break and will return to action with a 32-22 record and in fifth place in the Eastern Conference.
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Will Philadelphia 76ers make the playoffs?
The odds are still heavily in the 76ers' favor to make the playoffs at +750. Coming out of the All-Star break they will have a two-game lead on the Indiana Pacers, and a 2.5-game advantage over the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic.
The question is whether that is enough of a buffer to survive the loss of Embiid. Because frankly, Philly has looked downright awful without him. In the most recent stretch without Embiid, the Sixers are 3-7. For the season, they are 6-14 straight up and 8-12 against the spread when Embiid sits.
That’s just a .300 winning percentage. And really, it shouldn’t be that surprising considering Embiid’s historic usage rate. At 38.6% this season, that would be higher than Michael Jordan’s career high of 38.3%.
Daryl Morey recently came out and said the team is “hopeful” Embiid can return in time for the playoffs. That doesn’t bode well for the remainder of the regular season.
Now, let’s give the Sixers a little credit. They still have some good players and are well-coached. But I think the way this roster is currently constructed, going .500 over the final 28 games would be the best-case scenario. Indiana, Miami, and Orlando will all have a shot to pass Philly in the second half.
All of a sudden, the Sixers are in the Play-In tournament where anything can happen. And who knows if Embiid returns at all? At +490 it might be worth a little sprinkle on the 76ers to miss the playoffs at this point.
Best bet: 76ers to miss the playoffs (+490 at FanDuel)
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