It’s going to be a mother of an NBA Playoff Sunday, with a bevy of NBA picks to choose from. The two games on the Mother’s Day slate are must-see TV after the Nuggets found their way back into the series with the Timberwolves and the Pacers snuck out a win of their own last time out.
Adding more juice to the schedule is my list of player props rolled into a 3-legged same-game parlay. Let’s begin with the league’s next-gen superstar, who needs a bounce back in a big way.
NBA playoffs parlay picks May 12
- Edwards Over 27.5 points
- Towns 3+ threes
- Brunson Under 6.5 assists
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Best NBA parlay picks for Sunday
NBA parlay pick
Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 points
Karl-Anthony Towns 3+ threes
Jalen Brunson Under 6.5 assists
Credit Anthony Edwards for owning the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Game 3 no-show against the defending champs, losing 117-90 and bringing the Denver Nuggets some hope after dropping the first two games of the series at home.
Fortunately, the uber-talented Edwards has both the mental and physical talent to win a crucial Game 4 matchup with Denver. He posted 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists in the loss, just the second time he’s been held below 20 points in these playoffs.
In the other five games, Ant-Man has ripped through Sunday’s line of 27.5 points four times, putting up at least 33 points. The only miss came by just a point in Game 2. He's averaging better than 30 points per game this postseason, and after Minny posted its lowest scoring output last time out, he should be locked in when things tip off Sunday.
If all goes to Minnesota’s plan, his aggressive play should bend Denver's defense, finding open looks for teammates dotting the perimeter. One of the direct beneficiaries is Karl-Anthony Towns, the self-proclaimed best-shooting big man on the planet.
He’s coming off a nice 4-for-5 effort from distance in Game 3, helping him finish with 14 points, five rebounds, and three assists. In fact, he's hit at least three triples in four of his previous five games this postseason and is shooting a crisp 64.3% from beyond the arc in this series.
He’s helped propel the Wolves to the third-best 3-point percentage in these playoffs, just tenths of a point behind the Celtics and Thunder. He'll be firing away with frequency against the Nuggets.
We’ll wrap with New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson, who's been hobbled by a foot injury but will be in the lineup for Game 4. New York took the Indiana Pacers to the wire before Indy found a way to escape with a 111-106 Game 3 victory.
Indiana’s commitment to defense, particularly in sending multiple defenders Brunson’s way to support Aaron Nesmith (a nice tactical change by Rick Carlisle, who was watching Aaron Nembhard get cooked by Brunson and had to intervene) cranked the pace down.
Brunson had his worst night of the series, shooting just 38.5% from the field on 26 shots while adding six assists. That makes it three straight games he’s stayed Under the 6.5-assist total, a number he cruised by four times in Round 1 against Philly.
There’s so much offensive responsibility on Brunson, especially with Julius Randle (shoulder) and OG Anunoby (hamstring) on the shelf. When the game tightens up down the wire like it did in Game 3, Brunson’s responsibility will be to score buckets, as the lone, high-level shot creator on the Knicks’ roster.
That should lower the number of times Brunson has to try and find the best shot available and do it mostly himself. While that’s not a sustainable method, it could get New York a 3-1 lead, and it will likely come at the expense of his table-setting duties.
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Today's NBA same-game parlay picks
Our betting experts have searched through today's NBA odds to find your best SGP bets for both games on Sunday's playoff slate:
Knicks vs Pacers same-game parlay (SGP)
Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 points
Donte DiVincenzo Over 23.5 points
Jalen Brunson Under 6.5 assists
Just as Siakam is the key to relieving the burden on Haliburton’s shoulders, Donte DiVincenzo has stepped up in this series as a much-needed sidekick for Jalen Brunson — and that’s a trend I see continuing this afternoon.
DiVincenzo couldn’t get going against the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round but he’s had no trouble torching the Pacers, including a 35-point effort in Game 3. I love the Over on his points prop today — and it’s a number that’s he passed in all three games in this series.
I’m also taking the Under on Brunson’s assists. Indiana has held him to six or fewer dimes in each of the three contests so far, and the Knicks will surely look to ease some of his ball-handling workload to protect his injured foot.
With DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, and Miles McBride all capable of initiating the offense for New York, I see Brunson’s scoring outshining his playmaking again in Game 4.
Read Tom Oldfield's full Knicks vs. Pacers predictions.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points
Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 threes
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists
Occam’s razor says Minnesota will play better than Friday. If so, then Denver needs to keep shooting from beyond the arc. It creates a bit more space for Jokic to operate, no matter if he is scoring or passing.
Aaron Gordon may be the worst shooter of the Nuggets starters, hitting just 29% of his threes during the regular season, but his spacing also creates the most flexibility for Jokic. The Timberwolves largely ignore Gordon beyond the arc, allowing Gobert to roam as a defensive catch-all.
Gordon probably won't hit 3-of-4 from deep like he did Friday, but he may attempt as many. At that point, betting on him to make at least one of them holds value.
Similarly, spacing leads to assists from Towns. He has recorded at least three assists in four of seven postseason games, and I expect the Wolves' superstar to find his teammates open looks on Sunday.
Read Doug Farmer's full Nuggets vs. Timberwolves predictions.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
