Just a day after toppling the Celtics at home, the Portland Trail Blazers will look to build some further momentum when they take on the Dallas Mavericks on the second night of a back-to-back.
With Dallas entering the loser of four games in its last five, we’ll explain in our Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers predictions and NBA picks why scoring could be hard to come by.
Mavericks vs Trail Blazers prediction
Mavericks vs Trail Blazers best bet: Under 232.5 (-110)
It’s still early in the season, which means there’s still plenty of time for the Portland Trail Blazers to blossom into a decent basketball team. There are numerous issues with this club, including a long list of injuries, but the first thing that may be improving noticeably is its play on defense.
Portland ranks 12th in defensive rating over the last two weeks — a near-4-point improvement per 100 possessions over its 22nd-ranked rating for the year. It’s not as if this is a fluke, either, considering Portland is 14th in effective field goal percentage allowed — it just so happens that they’re surrendering the fourth-most 3-pointers in the league on average, which is exactly what they did last year.
That presents an interesting matchup here with the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks have been all about interior scoring, shooting from the arc the sixth-least frequently in the league, and their success has been limited to the mid-range.
Portland ranks 10th in rim defense behind Donovan Clingan, and while it hasn’t defended the mid-range well, the team’s at least limited looks there somewhat. This will likely come down to whether or not the Mavericks can score in this area, and in the last two weeks, the Trail Blazers have ranked ninth against the mid-range.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, are just 3-11 on the road and, as noted above, come in with pretty poor form — not to mention Anthony Davis is on the injury report. While he’s expected to play, the Trail Blazers may get Jerami Grant back for this one, and Jrue Holiday is closing in on a return as well.
This should only strengthen Portland’s trendy defense, and that’s enough for me to play the Under. Portland’s up against the best 3-point defense and eighth-best rim defense in the NBA, and it's taking nearly all of its attempts in those two areas.
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Mavericks vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay
The Mavericks may be one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, and there may be plenty of expected missed shots here with a projected Under, but I think this number is far too large for Donovan Clingan.
Robert Williams III is expected to return after sitting out the front-end of the back-to-back, and in the last six games he’s played, Clingan has averaged just 8.3 boards. With a reduced workload, he should have trouble getting to 13.
I certainly love Cooper Flagg; however, given Portland's overall struggles against the mid-range. He should be relentless in firing from inside the arc.
Mavericks vs Trail Blazers SGP
- Under 232.5
- Donovan Clingan Under 12.5 rebounds
- Cooper Flagg Over 23.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Big day for Deni!
If you want to be brave enough to go at this Mavericks defense, I think Shaedon Sharpe is your guy. He can take the ball inside in addition to shooting 3-pointers, which is key against the best 3-point defense in the league, and with Williams on the floor, he’s seen a 4-point uptick in usage.
The fact he’s averaged 24.7 points in 32 minutes per game over the last seven contests is just gravy. Someone will have to rebound for Portland against this weak Dallas frontcourt, and I’ll go with Deni Avdija, who’s stayed true to this number over the last five games, averaging 7.4 over that span. He’s been a scoring threat as well, going for 29 the last time these two teams met.
Mavericks vs Trail Blazers SGP
- Under 232.5
- Donovan Clingan Under 12.5 rebounds
- Cooper Flagg Over 23.5 points
- Shaedon Sharpe Over 24.5 points
- Deni Avdija Over 42.5 points + rebounds + assists
Mavericks vs Trail Blazers odds
- Spread: Mavericks +2.5 | Trail Blazers -2.5
- Moneyline: Mavericks +110 | Trail Blazers -130
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5
Mavericks vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know
The Mavericks have gone Over their team total in 12 of their last 14 games for +9.65 units and a 60% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers.
How to watch Mavericks vs Trail Blazers
| Location | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date | Monday, December 29, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
Mavericks vs Trail Blazers latest injuries
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