Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Game 6 Picks and Predictions: Minnesota Bites Back, Again

Memphis and Minnesota once again lock horns in a first-round series that's been complete pandemonium. With the Wolves backed into a corner for Game 6, we're expecting their desperation to fuel a win, as our Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves picks explain.

Last Updated: Apr 29, 2022 5:59 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Anthony Edwards Karl-Anthony Towns Minnesota Timberwolves NBA playoffs
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A second major collapse cost the Minnesota Timberwolves again in this series on Tuesday. Redeeming themselves at home should not be a sure thing, since Minnesota first authored an epic collapse at Target Center in Game 3. Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies, meanwhile, want to put an end to this series.

The Grizzlies have that chance tonight, and the odds lean toward Memphis ever so slightly. Can the Timberwolves not only get a lead, but hold onto one to force a Game 7?

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Grizzlies at the Timberwolves on Friday, April 29.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Memphis initially opened as a two-point favorite on Tuesday evening shortly after the Grizzlies won on Morant’s last-second layup. By Wednesday night, some books featured this game as a pick’em, before returning to the Grizzlies being favored by a point early Thursday. The total moved much less, opening at 228.5 late Wednesday and early Thursday before rising to 229.0 on Thursday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves predictions

Predictions made on 4/29/2022 at 5:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Grizzlies vs Timberwolves game info

Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Friday, April 29, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves series odds

Grizzlies: -650
Timberwolves: +475

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves betting preview

Key injuries

Grizzlies: Steven Adams C (Out), Ziaire Williams SF (Doubtful).
Timberwolves: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two, all coming in 2022, including 3-1 in the last four games of this series. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

What a gloriously enjoyable mess of a series. No matter how large a lead the Timberwolves might find tonight, no Minnesota fan will trust it until the final buzzer sounds. The Wolves could lead by 30 entering the final frame, and the Target Center crowd would remain uneasy.

That is an earned criticism of the Timberwolves, but it is also a credit to the Grizzlies. No matter how the game unfolds, Memphis will keep pushing. That has been a key to its season, a key to earning the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference and the biggest key to holding a 3-2 lead in this series.

But in an elimination game, particularly an elimination game in a series that has been tightly contested with only one exception, some deference should be offered to the team trying to prolong its season. The Timberwolves have everything to lose; the Grizzlies can live to play Sunday.

It is hard to say Minnesota has outplayed Memphis, given how atrocious those collapses have been, but by no means have the Grizzlies outplayed the Timberwolves. Minnesota is shooting 4.6% better from deep (38.8 to 34.2) on 3.4 more attempts per game (14.2 to 109.8), not to mention an 83.1% to 71.8% advantage at the free-throw line. But the Timberwolves have also turned the ball over 3.6 more times per game (19.0 to 15.4) and have given up 6.6 more shots per game as a result of those miscues and an excess of Grizzlies offensive rebounds.

The edges can be applied both ways. Hence, this gloriously enjoyable mess of a series.

In the regular season, these two split their series 2-2, with the home team winning all four games. In both of the Timberwolves’ home victories, they also covered the spread. Obviously, that trend fell apart in Game 3, but it should be noted, — and these next four words are typed with a figurative tone balancing sarcasm and legitimacy, if that is possible — it historically fell apart. Minnesota should be 4-0 ATS at home against the Grizzlies this season.

History should not repeat itself twice.

Prediction: Timberwolves +1.5 (-110 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

The playoffs bring a grind, and not in the Grit’n’Grind sense, though that is usually not far behind. The only game of the last four in this series to go Over did so only because of a few largely meaningless last-minute buckets, including a completely meaningless, buzzer-beating 3.

To add onto that, Memphis losing Steven Adams for at least this game will actually hurt scoring. Minnesota’s offense feasts on the New Zealand big man, while he contributes to the Grizzlies’ offensive rebounding successes. Even if Adams has not played much this series, that is one fewer option for Memphis head coach Taylor Jenkins, and he has needed options as Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to foul at a rate that most six-year-olds would be embarrassed by.

Lastly, these are two young teams, learning as they go. Neither has been in a game quite like this before. Despite a spirited effort, the Grizzlies were never quite serious threats to the Jazz last year. All sides of this experience are foreign to the Wolves. One or both of them may tense up tonight, and that will be part of the fun, but it will also suppress the scoring for at least a stretch.

Prediction: Under 229.0 (-108 at WynnBET)

Best bet

The Jazz, Pelicans, and Raptors all failed us Thursday night. Someone in this first round has to force a Game 7, right? We, as NBA fans, deserve that, right?

That is faulty logic, of course, but the Timberwolves are the bet. They are at home playing in front of a juiced-up crowd in primetime. They have beaten Memphis consistently at home this season, but then gave one of those back in Game 3.

Some early Friday morning odds — and by early, let’s say 2 or 3 a.m. ET — have started to suggest this line may close at a pick’em. It is not there yet, and that is only a hunch, but it is another data point in favor of picking Minnesota to extend this series one more game.

The money line is not lucrative, best seen right now at +102, so if able to find +1.0 with reduced odds, let’s say -103, then that cushion would be worth the five-cent charge. The one point would not, however, be worthwhile at -110.

So, consider this a reminder to always shop as we all hope for the best series of this first round to last through the weekend.

Pick: Timberwolves moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)

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