Bulls vs Heat Picks and Predictions: A Chicago Victory May Hinge on Vucevic

The final Eastern Conference playoff ticket is up for grabs in South Beach when the Chicago Bulls visit the Miami Heat in the NBA Play-In Tournament on Friday night.

Miami missed its chance to claim the No. 7 seed in the postseason with an ugly loss to Atlanta at home in the opening play-in game on Tuesday. It fell behind by as many as 24 points before clawing its way back with a stronger second half, but ultimately lost 116-105 as a 5.5-point favorite.

Chicago managed to complete the comeback in Toronto on Wednesday, pulling out the 109-105 road win despite trailing by as many as 19 points. It outscored the Raptors 37-24 in the fourth quarter to not only cash in as a six-point underdog, but open the door to the No. 8 seed in the East.

I run down the spread and Over/Under for this play-in tournament tilt, and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Bulls at Heat on Friday, April 14.

Bulls vs Heat best odds

Bulls vs Heat picks and predictions

If the ultra-low total didn’t give it away, Friday’s play-in game between the Bulls and Heat is going to be a grinder.

Miami showed glimpses of its once-mighty defense in the second half against Atlanta on Tuesday, limiting the Hawks to 51 points after getting rolled for 65 in the opening two frames.

The Heat will concentrate their defensive efforts on Chicago’s backcourt of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, who combined for 62 of Chicago’s 109 total points in their play-in win at Toronto on Wednesday. But it's the Bulls' big man who could do the most damage.

Nikola Vucevic, who scored 14 points on 6-for-14 shooting against the Raptors, has been a consistent source of offense inside. He averaged close to 19 points in the post-break schedule, making almost eight of his 13.7 field goal attempts per game (57%).

His points prop for Friday is at 15.5 (Over -117) which — on top of the small total — reflects his output on Wednesday as well as an eight-point, 17-minute cameo in Chicago’s season finale. However, he’s eclipsed 15 points in six of his last seven games with normal floor time, and in 13 of his previous 17 games overall.

His projected points have a pretty high ceiling, with some models throwing out more than 18 against the Heat. Even on the low end he’s clearing 16.5, and I have him pegged for 17.7 points, which is more than enough to put this prop to bed.

Vucevic takes on a Miami defense that struggles against talented centers. Even when the Heat were among the defensive elite earlier in the year, they still gave up points to rival big men. But in the post-break slate (when their defense fell off a cliff), they’ve been roughed up for 29.3 points per game from opposing centers — fifth-most in that span.

Vucevic averaged 19 points over three meetings with Miami this season, but exposed that soft interior with a 29-point showing on Dec. 20, shooting 13-for-17 (including 3-for-5 from beyond the arc) in South Beach. The Montenegrin actually does his best work on the road, where he puts up 18.3 points per away game on the year.

My best bet: Vucevic Over 15.5 points (-117)

Bulls vs Heat spread analysis

Following the conclusion of Chicago’s comeback win in Toronto, oddsmakers installed Miami as a five-point home favorite, and early play has been on the host team, moving this spread to -5.5 as of Thursday morning.

The Heat were likely cheering loudly for Toronto in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in due to their troubles with the Bulls this season. Chicago won all three regular season showdowns with Miami, including wins in South Beach back in December and October.

The most recent head-to-head between these foes came on March 18, with the Bulls goring the Heat 113-99 as two-point dogs at home. Chicago was especially hot offensively that game, connecting on 56% of its field goal attempts and finishing 17-for-34 from beyond the arc — a very uncharacteristic effort from an offense that averaged less than 11 triples since the All-Star break.

Chicago was just 7-for-26 from deep against Toronto on Wednesday and looked terrible offensively until catching fire in the fourth quarter, in which it knocked down four of those 3-pointers and shot 12-for-19 from the floor, along with 9-of-10 from the foul line.

Defense remains the backbone of the Bulls, who finished the post-break slate with the best advanced defensive rating in the league (110.1), which led to a net rating of +5.7 in those 23 games. Chicago managed to go 15-9 SU and 13-10-1 ATS, and rides a three-game ATS run into Friday’s play-in game.

Defense used to be the calling card for the Heat, who owned the fifth-best defensive rating before the All-Star break. Ever since that annual hiatus, Miami is MIA on that end of the floor. It finished the final 23 games 22nd in that same advanced metric while watching opponents average 113.6 points per night (versus 108.3 pre-break).

Tuesday’s loss to Atlanta was more of the same — at least in the opening 24 minutes — with the Hawks exploding out of the gate for 65 first-half points. Miami tightened the bolts on the defensive end, but didn’t have the firepower to counter that poor start.

Those inconsistent efforts have plagued Heat backers in the homestretch, with the team splitting ATS wins and losses in its last six outings overall, and closing the post-break schedule with a 12-12 SU mark and 9-15 ATS clip.

Bulls vs Heat Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under opened as low as 208.5 points, and is sitting at 209 as of Thursday morning after brief stops at 209.5 overnight.

This is among the lowest NBA totals bettors have dealt with all season, with only two other games closing with numbers of 209 points. Should this total slide back to its opener or close lower, it would be the lowest Over/Under of the entire 2022-23 season. In fact, there have been only three contests with sub-210 totals, with those games finishing 2-1 O/U.

That short number is warranted, especially when it comes to the Bulls. As mentioned, Chicago is one of the defensive elite in the NBA, and backs that stingy play with a methodical pace on offense. It finished the post-break slate with the slowest pace rating the league (96.2), and put up less than 113 points per road game in that stretch.

Books countered those results with some low totals, leading to a 7-5 O/U mark on the road. Wednesday’s play-in at Toronto closed with a total of 212.5 points after opening as high as 217.5, and the 109-105 final score divided bettors depending on what number they bet into.

Miami’s awful offensive showing against the Hawks helped keep the 116-105 final below the closing total of 228 points on Tuesday. However, Atlanta is about as opposite an opponent as you could get when compared to Chicago, as the Hawks’ game sees plenty of points from both sides. The Heat entered the play-in on a five-game Over run, but those higher-scoring results came against some dreadful defenses and teams with mixed motivations to end the schedule.

Books set the total for the March 18 matchup between these teams at 219.5, and Under money pushed it to a closing number of 217 points. The Bulls’ 113-99 victory stayed below that Over/Under, and marked the second straight game these foes finished Under the total (1-2 O/U on the year).

Bulls vs Heat betting trend to know

Postseason games (play-in and playoffs) with totals of less than 210 points have posted a 12-9 Over/Under count going back to 2019-2020 season. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Heat.

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