5 NBA Player Prop Bets You Need to Make Before the 2023-24 Season Begins

The 2023-24 NBA season is nearly upon us, which means it’s your last chance to get in on season-long NBA player prop futures before the action begins in earnest on Tuesday, October 24. 

I’ve surveyed the props, contexts, and various offerings by NBA odds makers to present you with the five NBA player prop bets you need to make before the 2023-24 season begins.

Damian Lillard Over 3.9 3s made per game 

Our first prop is one of the most obvious, but that makes it no less potent. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard teaming up, both are going to find their lives on offense easier than ever before.

There is certainly a world where uniting Giannis and Lillard’s talents sees Dame's scoring averages go down. While scoring 32.2 points last season had Lillard on the fringes of the NBA MVP odds conversation until the Portland Trail Blazers fell out of the playoff race, it didn’t leave him much energy for anything else. 

D.O.L.L.A's debut ⌚️

14 PTS | 3 AST | 3 STL | 2 REB pic.twitter.com/58AEct1ysR

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) October 16, 2023

The Bucks are likely to seek more balance from Lillard, but they’re also certain to prioritize his 3-point shooting. The reason that the combination of Lillard and Giannis is so deadly is that the Giannis can draw a team’s worth attention at the rim while Lillard does the same on the perimeter. 

Dame has been Over his mark in three of his last four seasons, and that was when he was being double-teamed at halfcourt as a rule.

NBA Player Prop Bet: Damian Lillard Over 3.9 3s per game (-110 at DraftKings)

Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 points per game 

Victor Wembanyama can get most of the way to this prop just playing the role of garbage man on offense for the Spurs. His willingness to rim run and get early seals in the preseason was striking and his incredible size makes him the ultimate full-court pass receiver. His ability to dunk while standing outside of the restricted area — from a standstill — is like nothing we have ever seen.

Not to mention Victor’s incredible skill and silky-smooth jump shot. While I believe it will take him a bit to get fully comfortable with all aspects of perimeter play, that aspect of his game feels like found money when the rest of his offensive game is going to come to him so easily. 

Wemby averaged 19.8 points through four preseason games, but he did so playing just 20 minutes per game. Even on a conservative plan he’s going to be playing closer to 30 minutes a game, giving him plenty of opportunity to clear this number.

NBA Player Prop Bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 points per game (-115 at DraftKings)

Keldon Johnson Under 20.8 points per game 

For our third player prop bet, we turn to another San Antonio Spurs player in Keldon Johnson. Johnson was the Spurs leading scorer last season at 22 points per game, but he’s about to drop in the pecking order substantially.

Wemby is certain to be the priority on offense going into the season. That means he’s the No. 1 target for any ambitious Spurs guard working in the halfcourt or transition, which are attempts that used to flow to Johnson. On top of that, it’s not even clear that Keldon will be second in line.

Not only is Wemby joining the team, but Devin Vassell — who just inked the most lucrative contract extension in Spurs history — is functionally another addition to the team after he played just 38 games last season. 

With more mouths to feed, I see Johnson falling short of this number.

NBA Player Prop Bet: Keldon Johnson Under 20.8 points per game (-120 at DraftKings)

Karl Anthony-Towns Over 22 points per game

Karl Anthony-Towns had a forgettable season a year ago. He played just 29 games and again struggled in the playoffs. Understandably, the perception around him is quite negative at this time. But Towns’ performance during the World Cup for the Dominican Republic as well as his play in the preseason tell another story. 

KAT appears to be in incredible shape and determined to leverage his speed and athleticism by being much more decisive. Instead of getting bogged down in straight post ups where he can sometimes get himself in trouble, he’s taking shots off the catch or driving and attacking with authority.

COMING THRUUU. 😼 pic.twitter.com/Vz5i0ex2zt

— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) October 14, 2023

In the four seasons prior to last year, Towns averaged 24.8 points per game on 62.8% true shooting. Rudy Gobert's presence does make Towns’ life more difficult on offense, but this prop is still a huge step down from his past production. 

With a full season of Mike Conley orchestrating the Timberwolves offense, I’m expecting a bounce back season from the Dominican big man.

NBA Player Prop Bet: Karl Anthony-Towns Over 22 points per game (-120 at DraftKings)

Mikal Bridges Under 25.8 points per game 

Mikal Bridges is a popular pick for breakout star this season, but this line is a bit ambitious.

Only 20 players averaged 25 points or more last season, and that list is littered with former MVPs and legit All-NBA studs. None of those 20 players had failed to make an All-NBA team at some point in their careers, and while Bridges is clearly on an upward trajectory, he’s yet to sniff an All-Star team.

It’s fair to wonder how long Bridges can realistically sustain the usage necessary to hit this number while still playing in literally every game for the Nets.

The 20 players who scored 25 points or more averaged just 61.8 games played with only four playing 70 or more. It might be close to impossible to play all 82 as Bridges routinely does and consistently score this many points.

NBA Player Prop Bet: Mikal Bridges Under 25.8 points per game (-115 at DraftKings)

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