NASCAR odds, betting predictions: Xfinity 500

In Martinsville, Brad Keselowski led 446 of 500 laps in last year’s spring race, only to follow that up with a pair of third-place finishes after.

Oct 29, 2020 • 13:16 ET
Brad Keselowski NASCAR Xfinity 500
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

NASCAR odds are finally on the board for this weekend's Xfinity 500, after rain delayed the Autotrader Echopark Automotive's finish by several days. 

The playoffs swerve into Martinsville Speedway this weekend for the final stop before the Season Finale 500, making for prime NASCAR betting action. 

Covers Experts' Auto Racing Advisor has your breakdown of the field and key stats with his Xfinity 500 picks and betting predictions for the Sunday, November 1 race. 

NASCAR betting odds for Xfinity 500

Driver Odds to Win
Martin Truex Jr. +325
Denny Hamlin +550
Brad Keselowski +550
Chase Elliott +850
Kyle Busch +850
Joey Logano +850
Ryan Blaney +900
Kevin Harvick +1,000
Alex Bowman +2,500
Kurt Busch +2,800
Clint Bowyer +3,300
William Byron +3,300
Jimmie Johnson +3,300
Aric Almirola +6,000
Matt DiBenedetto +6,000
Erik Jones +6,600
Austin Dillon +8,000
Tyler Reddick +8,000
Christopher Bell +10,000
Ryan Newman +10,000
Cole Custer +15,000
Matt Kenseth +15,000
Bubba Wallace +15,000
Chris Buescher +25,000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.  +25,000
Michael McDowell +50,000
John H. Nemechek +50,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Who Will Win Sunday's Xfinity 500?

Favorites to Bet

Denny Hamlin (+550)

Hard to go against the guy with seven wins this season, including three Top-5 finishes in his last four Martinsville starts. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+325)

At one point, Martin Truex Jr. was 0-for-26 in Martinsville. He’s now won two straight. In fact, Truex has six straight Top-8 finishes on the Virginia paperclip, including nine Top 8s in his last 11 Martinsville starts overall. 

Brad Keselowski (+550)

The 750-horsepower package has suited him so well. The 750-horsepower tracks are his bread and butter right now. We’ve had nine races on these circuits this season and no one has won as many of them as Keselowski. Three of his four wins have come on these tracks. In Martinsville, Keselowski led 446 of 500 laps in last year’s spring race, only to follow that up with a pair of third-place finishes after. He’s had nine consecutive Top-10 finishes at Martinsville, with eight of those being in the Top 5. 

 

Long Shots to Bet

Ryan Blaney (+900)

Can he steal a win? Blaney, was fourth and fifth respectively in the two races last year to go along with being runner-up this past June. He’s had four top five finishes in his last five Martinsville starts overall. 

 

Stat to Watch

If you want to win on Sunday, you’d better be in the Top 2 or 3 by the end of the second stage. Since we began stage racing in 2017, the eventual winner has finished either first (3 times), second (2 times), or third (once) in six of the seven second stages.

In fact, both races last year saw the race winner earn a stage win in the second stage. Same for the playoff race in 2018 too. 

On top of that, the winner had a Top-5 finish in the first stage every year too (7-for-7). That means you need to hit it off right from the get-go. 
Also, the last three winners have all come from a Top-5 starting spot, with nine of the last 10 coming from the Top 10 overall.  

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