Usman Nurmagomedov vs Paul Hughes Predictions, Picks & Odds for PFL

Bellator lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov puts his title on the line against Paul Hughes in the PFL Road to Dubai Champions Series today.

This is a rebranding of the merged PFL/Bellator promotion and takes place at the Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai. The undefeated Nurmagomedov trains at Eagles MMA under his cousin, UFC legend Khabib Nurmagomedov, and is a -575 favorite, with Hughes coming back at +400.

Here are my best Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes predictions and free betting picks for January 25.

Nurmagomedov vs Hughes prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction
  Nurmagomedov moneyline (-575 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Under 4.5 rounds (+185 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Usman Nurmagomedov is a perfect 18-0 in his career and claimed the Bellator lightweight title in a lopsided decision win against Patricky "Pitbull" Freire in 2022. 

Nurmagomedov has since officially defended the belt twice although he had another win overturned after testing positive for a banned substance found in a prescription drug. Since it was ruled unintentional the Dagestani fighter wasn't stripped of his belt and instead faced Alexander Shabliy last September, defeating him by unanimous decision. 

Paul Hughes is 13-1 and is the former Cage Warriors featherweight champ. The 27-year-old made his promotional debut with a TKO victory against Bobby King last June and followed up on that with a split-decision win against former Bellator featherweight champ A.J. McKee in October.

Hughes is a well-rounded fighter with good boxing but he's been in competitive scraps against guys like McKee, Morgan Charrière, James Hendin, and Jordan Vucenic who look like lower tier UFC caliber talent. Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov has been dominant and seems a sure-bet to eventually become a UFC star once teammate Islam Makhachev moves up to welterweight. 

I don't see a range where Hughes can have consistent success here. If he stays at distance he'll be picked apart by Nurmagomedov who has fluid striking and throws kicks to every level. And if he tries to close the gap, Usman can use his high-end grappling to take the fight to the mat or control in the clinch. The gap in skills and technical ability will be too much for Hughes to overcome.

Best bet analysis

Three of Nurmagomedov's last four fights have gone the distance but that was largely due to how gun-shy his opponents have been.

Shabliy is a counter-striker who stayed at range and Usman still came close to finishing him. Pitbull and Brett Primus also fought tentatively as if they were trying to survive as opposed to actually trying to win. On the other hand, Hughes is a pressure fighter who won't be afraid to engage with Usman which will lead to more opportunities for a stoppage. 

Don't forget that 14 of Nurmagomedov's 18 career wins have come inside the distance and that he submitted Benson Henderson in the opening round in his first title defense. 

It's also worth noting that Usman's older brother, UFC bantamweight contender Umar, is fresh off an upset loss at UFC 311 last weekend. That has led to a perception that the aura of invincibility surrounding the Nurmagomedov name has taken a hit. That means we could see an even more aggressive approach from the already confident Hughes and make him more likely to leave himself open defensively. 

Usman Nurmagomedov vs Paul Hughes odds

Method of Victory	Nurmagomedov	Hughes
To win outright	-650	+425
O/U 4.5 rounds	-275	+190
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 1-25.

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Usman Nurmagomedov vs Paul Hughes tale of the tape

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