The New York Yankees will try to get a second straight win over their crosstown rivals when they visit the New York Mets at Citi Field on Wednesday night.
The Mets (31-36) blew yet another early lead last night, with the Yankees ultimately coming back to win 7-6 after falling behind 5-1 through three innings. With Gerrit Cole on the mound for Wednesday’s matchup, the Yankees are in prime position to clinch a series win.
The Mets will have their own ace on the mound in Justin Verlander, though the veteran has struggled to find his groove in New York. I’ll break down who has the edge in this Big Apple matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Mets on June 14.
Yankees vs Mets odds
Yankees vs Mets predictions
Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander have been two of the best pitchers in the league over the past decade — even longer in Verlander’s case — making a combined nine All-Star Game appearances since Cole began his MLB career in 2013. However, these two aces have been polar opposites so far this season.
Verlander enjoyed a vintage season with the Houston Astros last year, putting up an 18-4 record and a 1.75 ERA during his age-39 season. But the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner hasn’t been able to replicate that success with the Mets. Verlander is just 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA in 2023, the kinds of numbers he hasn’t suffered through since a surprisingly mediocre 2014 season with the Detroit Tigers.
Cole isn’t struggling at all across town. The 32-year-old is off to one of the best starts of his career, and the Yankees have gone 11-3 when Cole has pitched this season. Cole is among the top contenders to win the AL Cy Young Award in 2023, and has been one of the major reasons the Yankees have been able to stay within striking distance of the Tampa Bay Rays this year.
The Mets aren’t in a great position to punish Cole tonight. They’re just 1-4 since losing slugging first baseman Pete Alonso to a wrist injury. Alonso was one of the few players on the Mets that could pose a threat to Cole, having hit an MLB-leading 22 homers this year. The Mets lineup lacks pop without Alonso in the center of it: the rest of the team has hit just 58 homers this year, which would rank near the bottom of the league.
True, the Yankees are also missing their own home run threat in Aaron Judge. But they’ve been far less dependent on one player to provide offense this year, and have fared reasonably well against right-handed pitching in general. With Verlander struggling, they should be able to jump on him early, just as they did against Max Scherzer last night.
The Yankees are a better team with a better offense and a better pitcher on the mound. Yet despite these factors, oddsmakers are calling this game a virtual toss-up. I don’t buy that at all. Let’s back the Yankees to get a second win against the Mets at Citi Field behind Cole tonight.
My best bet: Yankees moneyline (-105 at WynnBET)
Yankees vs Mets same-game parlay
Yankees moneyline
Yankees first five innings moneyline
Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 strikeouts
I’ve pegged Gerrit Cole as the key to tonight’s game, and I’m building my same-game parlay pick around the Yankees ace. Just as we did above, we’re going to start our SGP by picking the Yankees to win the game outright, something I think they should be able to do with a favorable pitching matchup.
With Cole on the mound, I also expect the Yankees to have the advantage in the early going. Verlander hasn’t been sharp lately, and even if the Yankees can only get two or three runs off him, that should be enough for Cole to maintain the lead against the Mets. That’s why I’m adding a Yankees first-half moneyline bet to the parlay.
Finally, we’ll throw in a bet on Cole to hit the Over on his strikeout prop total. While Cole is averaging 6.43 strikeouts per start this year, he’s facing off against a Mets team that has struck out at least eight times in each of its last 10 games. It’s a good bet that Cole will be able to finish off enough Mets hitters to reach the Over tonight.
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Yankees vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This game has been considered close to a tossup since it opened, with the Mets starting out as slight favorites at some books. The line has evened out even more since then, with almost all sites offered the same odds on both sides now. You can get -105 on either team to win outright tonight by shopping around for the best numbers.
The Yankees have beaten the moneyline by about eight units this year, but the story has been very different in Queens. The Mets have disappointed all season long, dropping an astounding 18 units in their first 67 games.
Those trends should continue tonight. As I pointed out in my best bet section, Cole should give the Yankees a clear edge tonight. Sportsbooks are giving Verlander a lot of credit for his past success tonight, but age may be catching up with him, and the Mets are the weaker team right now. The smart money is on the Yankees.
With two legendary pitchers on the mound, the Over/Under tonight has been set at 7.5 runs. That number hasn’t moved since opening, and sites disagree on which side should have the juice. You can find -105 on either the Over or the Under, depending on where you place your bets.
We just saw these teams combine for 13 runs last night, and while Cole and Verlander both have the potential to be shutdown starters, that’s a surprisingly low number given Verlander’s struggles and the history of this matchup. The Over is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings between the New York rivals, and I’m leaning towards the Over again tonight.
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Trend to know
The Mets are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Mets
Yankees vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (7-1, 2.84 ERA): Cole has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League over the past decade, and he’s lived up to expectations with the Yankees over the last four years. However, 2023 is shaping up to be his signature year in New York, as he has nearly singlehandedly kept the team in playoff position during the first half. Cole is coming off two strong starts, giving up just three runs over 12 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox earlier this month.
Justin Verlander (2-3, 4.85 ERA): Verlander started his first season with the Mets a bit late, as he suffered a muscle strain in Spring Training that pushed his debut to May 4. Since then, Verlander has had several good starts, but has struggled mightily in others, giving up six earned runs twice in seven outings. He had another rough game in his last start on June 8, giving up four earned on seven hits over just three innings against the Atlanta Braves.
