It’s not Halloween yet, but if you’re not feeling like a kid rummaging through their haul of candy tonight, you need to check yourself in the mirror!
It’s Game 1 of the World Series between the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros. While we're excited to watch the apex of the 2021 MLB season, what really gets MLB betting fans hitting that sugar rush is the plethora of baseball prop bets that come along with the Fall Classic!
The Astros are considered the higher seed, by way of holding the better record, and rep the American League, so the designated hitter will be featured in the first two games of the series.
Here are our best MLB prop bet picks and predictions Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday night.
Braves vs Astros prop picks
- Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
- Morton fewer walks than Valdez (-160)
- Rosario to hit a HR (+600)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Braves vs Astros Game 1 props
Lefty on lefty crime
It seems like sometimes Freddie Freeman is the forgotten man. The left-handed first baseman slugged his way to an MVP award last season and has now helped lead the Braves to their first World Series appearance since 1999.
Freeman has been clutch all year long and has especially crushed same-handed pitching. In his last 30 days (22 plate appearances), Freeman has a .389 ISO and wOBA of .437 against lefties.
Tonight he’ll face Framber Valdez, a young southpaw who has struggled recently against lefty sluggers. Against his last 20 lefties, Valdez has allowed a wOBA of .402 with an ISO of .316.
Freeman will be slugging away against Valdez tonight. We’ll need two singles hits or one extra-base hit to cash this prop — remember, walks don’t count.
PICK: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at DraftKings)
Veteran in control
Valdez has walked 10.3 percent of his batters faced throughout the season, as he is prone to stretches where he loses command and struggles to find the strike zone. He has been better in the last 30 days, allowing just 7.1 percent walks, but he’s facing a disciplined Braves team that has three batters walking more than 13 percent of the time against lefties over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Morton has actually missed more free passes recently, walking 10.3 percent of batters faced over his last 30 days, but he only had an 8.3-percent walk rate throughout the season — but considering the Astros are much more aggressive at the plate, they should be swinging away against Morton more often than not.
When it comes to who walks fewer batters under the brightest of lights tonight? I’d rather take the veteran that has pitched in these big spots before over a young lefty that already has poor command issues.
PICK: Charlie Morton fewer walks allowed vs Framber Valdez (-120 at DraftKings)
Eddie en fuego
Eddie Rosario is on fire for the Braves right now. The NLCS MVP has a .333 ISO and wOBA of .531 in his last 16 plate appearances against lefties and is hitting 50 percent line drives — with zero ground balls.
Valdez is a notorious ground-ball pitcher, but if Rosario is able to get the ball in the air tonight, he absolutely has a chance to launch a rocket out to right field.
It’s a long shot, but also worth noting that Rosario has done the most damage this year against sinkers and curveballs (Valdez' two main pitches) and he hit three home runs against the Dodgers through six games in the NLCS — he absolutely has the power to hit another one tonight.
PICK: Eddie Rosario to hit a home run (+600 at BetRivers)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s World Series Game 1 picks, you could win $285.17 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
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