A straight football in the groin yesterday with the reverse sweep, and just a bad day on the diamond. Luckily, today's just a three-game slate with a lot of wheels turning because of the deadline.
These are my three favorite pitcher MLB player props for Thursday, July 30.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 31
Stroman o1.5 walks allowed (-125)
Carrasco o5.5 hits allowed (+120)
Rocker o2.5 earned runs (-105)
Rays vs Yankees
The angle: Stroman is getting a longer leash, but walks are still an issue in a tough BB% matchup.
The move: Marcus Stroman Over 1.5 walks allowed (-125 at bet365)
Marcus Stroman will get the ball in today’s matinee and might see a bigger workload after a long series against the Tampa Bay Rays that went into extra innings last night.
He projects for 95 pitches, which is a number he hit two starts ago, and he is coming off a bad-command game where he finished with four walks. I am on his Over 3.5 strikeouts today as well, but the walks have been an issue with 16 in 34 innings.
The Rays are the No. 2 BB% team since the break at 11.4% and there's a chance for a walk ladder here to 4+, but potential rain is a slight worry, although it's projected to come later in the game. I’d buy the o1.5 walks to -135 and might consider hitting the 3+ walks at +245.
Braves vs Reds
The angle: He might have a longer leash than expected, and the setting couldn't be worse.
The move: Carlos Carrasco Over 5.5 hits allowed (+120 at DraftKings)
The Atlanta Braves continue to add starters to plug the holes in the rotation, and that means Carlos Carrasco is getting the ball today in Great American Ballpark, which is about as bad as it gets for pitchers.
He's been pitching well in Triple-A and has gone 21 outs in three straight games, meaning he should have a good leash today for the Braves, which means plenty of hits for the Cincinnati Reds.
In New York, he allowed 39 hits over 32 innings before the demotion and has been more than a hit-per-inning player since 2021. If he can go six innings, six hits are coming in Cincinnati. Six hits in five innings is also a very realistic outcome.
Rangers vs Mariners
The angle: Awful road splits and facing a Mariners offense that has added power.
The move: Kumar Rocker Over 2.5 earned runs (-105 at BetMGM)
Kumar Rocker has given up 29 earned runs across 26+ innings on the road this year, which equates to a 9.91 ERA across seven starts. The walks are an issue with a 4.4 BB/9, and the 40 hits allowed are an eye-opener.
He’ll face a stronger Seattle Mariners offense that should have some added power with the landing of Eugenio Suarez. The last time Rocker pitched in Seattle this year, he lasted just 68 pitches and gave up four runs while striking out just two.
His leash is longer of late, and he's 5-2 to the Over on this prop on the road this year.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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