Today’s MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions: Running a Red

With playoff pressure ratcheting up, every pitch is worth sweating in MLB betting action. We're diving into a variety of prop markets today (and every day) to bring you your best bets from around the MLB with our MLB prop picks.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
Aug 29, 2021 • 08:39 ET • 4 min read
Tyler Naquin MLB Cincinnati Reds
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It’s do-or-die time in the MLB, which means a lot riding on every pitch from here until October. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it. 

We’re coming off a 2-1 SU +3u Saturday and looking to turn that into some more on Sunday afternoon. We’re back on the stolen base prop wagon, hitting a stale number for two units and fading the Baltimore rotation.

Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Sunday, August 29.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Spenser Watkins Under 3.5 strikeouts (-110)

The Baltimore pitching staff has been making bettors a ton of cash this season, as they are easily the worst rotation in all of baseball. Sunday, Spenser Watkins gets the ball and takes his 7.07 ERA and 28 strikeouts over 42 innings to the prop market. The right-hander hasn’t struck out more than three batters in three straight starts as he’s been too busy getting tagged, giving up 16 runs over those three games and lasting just a total of 10 innings. 

Watkins has seen the Rays three times this year, but Tampa has become familiar with the Baltimore starter and hit him for four runs on eight hits with two strikeouts in the most recent meeting just two weeks ago. 

The Rays have done a decent job at cutting down on the strikeouts in the second half and are the most lethal lineup in baseball in regards to WAR. Watkins might not last four innings, let alone get four strikeouts. We like the price and spot here. 


Rafael Ortega (+550, 1u) and Jason Heyward (+1,200, 0.25u) Over 0.5 stolen bases

Yesterday, we hit our +300 stolen base play simply by taking the league leader in that category. Today, we’re doing a little more investigation into the market and the stats surrounding it, which are a little trickier to dog up.

Only three MLB starters have allowed more stolen bases than Chicago’s Dylan Cease this season. At least one stolen base has been recorded in all 10 of his last starts, and although he wasn’t responsible for all 14 bags swiped over that stretch, he was on the hook for eight of them. The White Sox allow the second-most stolen bases per game in the MLB at .66

The Chicago Cubs are an above-average team when it comes to stolen-base frequency, stealing 0.47 bags per game. The Cubs’ CF Rafael Ortega has already successfully swiped a bag off of Cease back on August 8, while Jason Heyward and Frank Schwindel were caught stealing against the White Sox on Friday. 

We’re going a full unit on Ortega at +550 and sprinkling 0.25 units on Heyward at +1,200. 

Tyler Naquin Over 0.5 total bases (-192 - 2 units)

It’s been a while since we dug into the markets of good hitters who are slumping. So far, we’re 3-0 SU +3u with this approach and looking to stay perfect Sunday. Sadly we won’t find a slumping hitter today as while we were researching this we came across a bad line for one of the hottest hitters in baseball.

Cincinnati’s Tyler Naquin is the No. 1 player in Yahoo fantasy over the last 14 days and is 22 for 47 over that stretch with a 1.464 OPS. He is playing every day and is riding a 17-game hitting streak. 

His 0.5 total bases prop at -192 may have to do with a lefty on the mound for the Marlins, as Naquin is hitting just .222 against LHP this year and may move down to the seventh spot in the order, but he has collected some bases vs LHP over this streak, which gives us the confidence to drop two units on this bet.

MLB betting card for August 29

  • Spenser Watkins Under 3.5 strikeouts (-110)
  • Rafael Ortega (+550 - 1u) and Jason Heyward (+1,200 - 0.25u) Over 0.5 stolen bases
  • Tyler Naquin Over 0.5 total bases (-192 - 2 units)

Picks made on 8/29/2021 at 7:15 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB prop picks, you could win $2462.22 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on MLB props?

You can bet on MLB props at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB player props, derivatives, and a ton of other MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB props in your area.

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