Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Reds Lash Out at Lyles

Prop bet #1: Harris burns Tigers

The Atlanta Braves have been a masterclass when it comes to acquiring and developing young talent, with the most recent example being the reigning National League Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II. 

Harris claimed the award after hitting .297 with a .853 OPS to go along with some outstanding outfield defense. Now, 2023 has gotten off to a rough start for the 22-year-old, but the Braves center fielder looks like he is turning a corner at the plate and has a chance to contribute in a big way against the Detroit Tigers tonight.

Despite an unsightly .205 batting average, Harris is still hitting the ball hard and the hits are starting to drop in. The lefty bat is 10 for his last 24 (.435) with a 1.241 OPS over his last six games. That includes four extra-base hits.

Tonight, he’ll dig into the box against Tigers’ prospect Reese Olson. The 23-year-old right-hander made his MLB debut on June 2, and so far, he’s been impressive. Olson uses a four-seamer that averages in the mid-90s, and uses a combination of a slider and a changeup as his wipeout pitches.

However, he only has 10 major league innings under his belt, and this Braves lineup is arguably the toughest to navigate in all of baseball. Maybe he thinks a guy like Harris is a spot in that lineup where he can take a breather. I expect Harris to be ready and take advantage. 

On top of that, five innings is likely Olson’s max here. Then he hands the ball to a Tigers bullpen that ranks 19th in xFIP, 20th in opponent batting average, and 26th in strikeouts per nine.

With the Over 1.5 total bases for Harris getting a +150 price tag, this is a sneaky good play on Tuesday.

Michael Harris II prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+150)

Prop bet #2: Royal pain

It can be tough when your season is over and it isn’t the middle of June yet. That’s what the Kansas City Royals are dealing with. Entering tonight’s matchup with the Cincinnati Reds, K.C. has lost seven in a row and sits at 18-48. That means they match the Oakland A’s for the fewest wins in baseball.

So it looks like the Royals are already trying to just run out the clock on the 2023 MLB season, which in some ways makes Jordan Lyles the perfect fit for this team. The veteran right-hander is little more than an innings-eater for the Royals at this point.

The 32-year-old Lyles is pitching to a 5.12 expected ERA, surrendering a .505 expected slugging percentage to opponents, and his strikeout rate is in the Bottom 17% of the MLB. Oh, and Kansas City is 0-13 in his starts this season. Not great.

While you might think a matchup with the Reds could mean a better start for Lyles, not so fast. Cincinnati has been quietly solid when facing right-handed pitching this season, ranking ninth in batting average and 16th in OPS. Additionally, they’ve gotten a boost by calling up top prospect Elly De La Cruz last week.

De La Cruz has burst onto the scene — hitting .296 with a .925 OPS — and the Reds have gone 5-1 since his debut, scoring 6.3 runs per game over that stretch.

But back to Lyles. It’s not just that he’s giving up runs. He’s giving them up over long outings. With a bullpen that reflects an 18-win team, the Royals tend to leave Lyles out there even if things aren’t going well. The righty is averaging 5 2/3 innings per start this season.

That means the Reds will have ample opportunities to tack on some more runs to Lyles’ stat sheet and help him go Over 2.5 earned runs allowed — a number he has gone Over in 11 of his 13 starts this season.

Jordan Lyles prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-115)

Prop bet #3: Hit parade

Happy Fade Patrick Corbin Day to those who celebrate. Corbin is like the original Jordan Lyles, but the embattled Washington Nationals starter is having an interesting year. 

Despite getting hit just as hard and often as he has the past couple of seasons, he isn’t giving up nearly as many runs. In fact, he has limited opposing teams to three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts this season. Luckily, I don’t care about that.

Overall, the numbers for Corbin are still bad. The left-hander is pitching to a 6.18 xERA, is striking out just 14% of batters faced, and is surrendering a .323 xBA and a .521 xSlugging to opponents this season. All of those marks rank in the Bottom 8% of the MLB or worse.

And just like Lyles, Washington allows Corbin to work through his issues on the mound, because honestly, they don’t have many better options. Corbin is averaging 5 2/3 innings pitched per start this season, and the result has been hits, and lots of them. He is giving up 11.4 hits per nine innings, and I expect that to continue tonight against the Houston Astros.

The Astros haven’t been the dominant lineup we expected them to be so far this season, but they still do a decent job vs. southpaws. Houston ranks 12th in batting average, 11th in OPS, and 10th in wRC+ when facing lefties this season. And now that Jose Altuve is back in the lineup, they are starting to roll.

Corbin has surrendered seven or more hits in 10 of his 13 starts this season. I’m betting the Astros make it 11 of 14.

Patrick Corbin prop: Over 6.5 hits allowed (-125)