Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Luzardo Maintains Momentum vs Cardinals

Prop bet #1: Freddie's ready

The Los Angeles Dodgers continue their East Coast swing when they visit arguably the hottest team in baseball — the Baltimore Orioles. 

The Orioles enter this matchup winners of eight in a row and now sit just one back of the Tampa Bay Rays for first place in the very tough American League East. So, tonight’s game against the National League West-leading Dodgers should be a good test.

The Dodgers just had a six-game winning streak of their own snapped on Sunday, but they come into this one playing well with one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, one anchored by none other than Freddie Freeman.

The seven-time All-Star is having another fantastic season, hitting .314 with a .941 OPS, and he could be a problem for Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez.

The 23-year-old is one of Baltimore’s several highly-rated prospects, but there were definitely some growing pains in the right-hander’s introduction to the big leagues.

Rodriguez made the team out of spring training but things did not go smoothly. The right-hander got lit up for a 6.03 expected ERA while surrendering a .290 expected batting average and .505 expected slugging percentage to opponents over his first 10 starts, all of which ranked in the Bottom 6% of MLB and he was optioned back to Triple-A Norfolk as a result.

But a series of strong performances there has him back up. Too bad it’s against Freeman and the Dodgers. Freeman has great splits against right-handers with a .319 average and a .911 OPS. At even money, I like him to go Over his total bases tonight against the O’s. 

Freddie Freeman prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+102)

Prop bet #2: Luzardo brings the heat

The Miami Marlins are having one of their bests seasons in years, and a big reason for that is the starting pitching. Tonight, they hand the ball to one of the best young southpaws in the game in Jesus Luzardo when they take on the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night.

Luzardo is one of the hardest-throwing left-handed starters in baseball with a fastball that averages 96.8 mph and he sure has been putting that to good use. The lefty is pitching to a 3.53 expected ERA, is limiting opponents to a .225 expected batting average, and has a strikeout rate of 29.1%. 

That strikeout rate is in the 84th percentile when it comes to big leaguers this season, but Luzardo has taken the punchouts to the next level of late. The 25-year-old is striking out 32.7% of the batters he has faced over his last 11 starts and he’ll have a great opportunity to keep that up tonight vs. St. Louis.

The Cardinals look like a team with their wings clipped. They somewhat stunningly sit in last place in the National League Central and now rumors are swirling about who could be moved prior to the trade deadline at the end of the month.

St. Louis has been a mediocre offense when facing left-handed pitching, ranking 15th in OPS and 14th in wRC+, but they also have the 10th-highest K-rate vs. southpaws this season. 

As noted, Luzardo is in a groove. He has a 1.14 ERA and pitched at least six innings in each of his last five starts. That includes shutting out the Cards on five hits while striking out eight over six innings of work just prior to the All-Star break. He’s also recorded seven or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 starts. At plus money, he’s worth a wager to do so again tonight.

Jesus Luzardo prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+115)

Prop bet #3: Smyly through the pain

The word I would use to describe Chicago Cubs starter Drew Smyly is serviceable. He's not great, not terrible, just good for a handful of unspectacular innings. And with tonight’s matchup against the 37-56 Washington Nationals, you may think this might be a good chance for him to have one of his better outings. But not so fast.

Smyly’s 4.15 expected ERA is pretty average and he does a good job of limiting hard contact. However, he gives up a lot of contact and doesn’t strike out a ton of guys. The left-hander’s .251 opponent-expected batting average, and 19.5% K-rate are well below the league average.

And despite all of the Nationals' struggles this season, they should provide a tough matchup for Smyly tonight.

Washington’s lineup is surprisingly dangerous vs. southpaws. The Nationals rank fourth in batting average, eighth in OPS, and 12th in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers. They also have the third-lowest strikeout rate.

Smyly also has a relatively short leash. He averages just 22.5 batters faced and 86.2 pitches per game this season. In a matchup against a patient lineup like the Nats, that pitch count can build up quickly. 

Smyly’s outs-recorded prop is sitting at 17.5. He’s gone Over that number in just six of his 18 starts. I’m betting on another serviceable outing for Smyly tonight, which means Under.

Drew Smyly prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-135)