Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Semien's Bat Worth Targeting vs A's

Prop bet #1: Belli blasts

The Cody Bellinger comeback has been one of the best stories in baseball this season. The Chicago Cubs outfielder not only looks like his old MVP self but is one of the most electric players in Major League Baseball in helping the Cubbies' postseason push.

Bellinger looked so lost at the plate for so long, many didn’t think he could ever get back to the guy he used to be when he looked like one of the best players in baseball. But the move to Chicago was just what he needed. 

Belli has been solid all season, but he’s taken it to the next level in the second half by hitting a crazy .393 with a 1.120 OPS over 23 games since the All-Star break. That includes 12 extra-base hits. He is currently on an eight-game hitting streak where that average has actually bumped up to .419 and he has multiple hits in four of his last six.

Bellinger will have a great chance to keep his strong play going when he digs into the batter’s box against the demoralized New York Mets.

The Mets hand the ball to Kodai Senga for this matchup. The Japanese right-hander has been one of the few bright spots for the Mets this season but is coming off a game where he surrendered 11 hits against the Kansas City Royals of all teams.

With Belli also hitting .309 against right-handed pitchers, he looks like a solid bet to go Over 1.5 total bases again at the +155 price tag. It's something he has done 15 times in his 23 games since the break and in five of his last seven overall.

Cody Bellinger prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+155)

Prop bet #2: Dylan domintates

Dylan Cease is coming off a rough outing. The Texas Rangers lit up the Chicago White Sox starter for seven runs on seven hits in just 1 2/3 innings of work last Wednesday. But that rough outing is giving us some value as he takes the mound Monday night against the visiting New York Yankees.

The thing is, Cease, had actually been pitching much better prior to that last start. The right-hander was pitching to a 3.34 ERA and 2.65 FIP and was striking out 11.9 batters per nine innings over his previous 10 starts.

Those better results meant he was also pitching deeper into games, averaging 98.7 pitches and 5 2/3 innings per start over those 10 starts. And now, he gets to face the Yankees.

Outside of Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres, the Yankees lineup has been a wasteland. The Yankees rank dead last in baseball in batting average since the start of June (.222), while also ranking 24th in OPS, and 23rd in wRC+. Basically, if Cease can navigate through Judge and Torres carefully, he should be in for another long outing tonight.

This is why his outs-recorded prop at 15.5 stood out to me. Cease has a long leash, and the Yankees are not in a great spot as a lineup. Before the meltdown vs. the Rangers, Cease went Over that number in 12 of his previous 14 starts. I expect him to get back on track and go Over that number once again.

Dylan Cease prop: Over 15.5 outs recorded (-120)

Prop bet #3: Semien slugs

It looks like the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will be duking it out for the American League West title all the way to the finish line. The Rangers have won six in a row and hold a 2.5-game lead over the Astros in the division, and if their lineup continues to keep rolling they will be hard to catch.

One player fueling this winning streak is second baseman Marcus Semien. Now, the two-time All-Star has been great most of this season, but he is really locked in at the moment.

Semien is hitting .281 with a .819 OPS with 18 home runs and 71 RBIs for the season. Currently, he’s on a seven-game hitting streak where he has a .370 average and a 1.129 OPS, which includes five extra-base hits and more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). So, you know he’s seeing the ball well.

Tonight, Semien and his teammates will get to carry on the time-honored tradition of beating up on the 2023 Oakland Athletics. 

The A’s sacrificial lamb for this matchup is Ken Waldichuk. The 25-year-old left-hander has been a typical A’s pitcher this season — not great. Waldichuk has a 5.04 expected ERA and the .430 expected slugging percentage he surrenders to opponents ranks in the 28th percentile among MLB pitchers.

It’s a little surprising to see Semien still getting plus money to the Over on his 1.5 total bases. This must be because he isn’t slashing as well against lefties. But still pretty darn good. Semien is also 2-for-5 in his career vs. Waldichuk. Those two hits? Both doubles. 

Waldichuk also averages just under 4 1/3 innings pitched per start this season. That means plenty of work for an Oakland bullpen that ranks dead last in xFIP.

I’m betting Semien stays hot and goes Over 1.5 total bases for the seventh game in a row.

Marcus Semien prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105)