Believe it or not, the MLB trade deadline is here, which means there should be plenty of player movement between now and 6 p.m. But don’t worry, there are still plenty of great MLB player props to dig through. And with all 30 teams on the diamond, there is no shortage of options.
Today could be a rough day for the Yankees, who may be the only ones who think they should be buyers, and that could turn into a rough night vs. the Rays.
Meanwhile, the Angels have made a bunch of moves already, but will likely need to patch some pitching holes if they want to make a serious postseason push. And that hole will be on display when Patrick Sandoval takes on the Braves.
And the most shocking move of all may be no move, with Cody Bellinger expected to stay put with the Cubs. If he is in the lineup tonight, he could have a big game vs. the Reds.
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best player prop picks for deadline day below.
MLB props for August 1
- Stanton Under 0.5 hits
- Sandoval Over 5.5 hits allowed
- Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases
Picks made on August 1 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: The ol' Stanton fade
The New York Yankees will be an interesting team to monitor heading into Tuesday afternoon’s trade deadline. At 55-51, the Yankees sit in last place in the American League East and 3.5 games out of the final wild-card spot. So, only the Yankees would really consider themselves buyers at this point.
But that doesn’t mean they won’t buy. But buy, sell, or stand pat, the Yankees get a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays hand the ball to right-hander Zach Eflin, who has been an excellent pickup for Tampa Bay this season. Eflin is pitching to an outstanding expected ERA of 3.12 and is among the MLB leaders in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
That doesn’t bode well for a Yankees team that ranks 26th in OPS and dead last in batting average since June 1. And there are no innocent bystanders in this Yanks lineup. Except for maybe Aaron Judge, who was sidelined with an injury until just recently.
And one of the biggest offenders is Giancarlo Stanton. The former MVP has looked like anything but during his 2023 campaign. Stanton is hitting .198 with a .709 OPS and just 14 home runs. It’s been even worse lately. He has just a .154 average and a .564 OPS with 14 strikeouts over his last 13 games.
Stanton is also just 1-for-8 in his career with three strikeouts when facing Eflin and right-handers in general have given him fits in 2023. His batting average is .183 with a .655 OPS vs. righties this season.
That all adds up to a tough night at the plate for the Yankees slugger currently going through a power outage.
Giancarlo Stanton prop: Under 0.5 hits (+148)
Prop bet #2: Sufferin' Sandoval
The hype surrounding the Los Angeles Angels is becoming a little much. Sure, it’s great that they’re going for it in Shohei Ohtani’s walk year. But while the Halos’ front office has tried to support him in the lineup, the pitching staff still leaves something to be desired.
And they may get a dose of reality tonight when they hand the ball to Patrick Sandoval tonight to take on the best team in Major League Baseball, the Atlanta Braves.
The Braves absolutely mash southpaws. Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, all of them. As a team, they rank second in batting average and lead the major leagues in OPS and wRC+ when facing left-handed pitching this season. And Sandoval hasn't exactly been an elite lefty.
Sandoval has been serviceable with a 4.25 expected ERA and he definitely has some glaring flaws. The lefty may not give up a lot of hard contact, but he gives a lot of hits. The .258 expected batting average he surrenders to opponents ranks in the 26th percentile among MLB pitchers.
On top of that, he doesn’t punch out a ton of guys, with a strikeout rate sitting in the 20th percentile. That’s not exactly a recipe for success vs. this Braves team.
Sandoval is giving up 8.9 hits per nine innings and gets the toughest matchup a left-hander can face in baseball. I’m betting the Braves knock him around a bit, sending him Over his hits-allowed prop of 5.5.
Patrick Sandoval prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-110 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Get in my Bellinger
For weeks, it felt like a certainty that Cody Bellinger was going to be traded ahead of today’s deadline. But after a little run to start the second half, the Chicago Cubs are just 3.5 games out of a playoff spot in the National League. And if Belli actually does stay put and is in the lineup vs. the rival Cincinnati Reds, I like the payoff to be immediate.
Bellinger’s resurgence has been a joy to watch. The former MVP looked so lost at the plate for so long. But he is hitting .313 with a .900 OPS and 15 dingers this season. He was also scorching hot in the month of July, collecting hits in all but four of the 26 games he played, good for a .400 average and a 1.122 OPS.
And the Cubs slugger will have a great chance to keep that going into August as he gets a nice matchup against Reds starter Ben Lively.
The right-hander is another guy I would classify as serviceable. His ERA sits at a respectable 3.76 but he is prime for some regression. Lively’s expected ERA is a much higher 4.55 and he is surrendering a .260 expected batting average and a .450 expected slugging percentage to opponents. Those each rank in the Bottom 25% of the big leagues or worse. And it has been left-handed hitters doing most of the damage, tagging him for a .807 OPS.
The +135 for Bellinger to go Over his total bases tonight is a solid price considering he has eclipsed this number 16 times in his 26 games played in July.
Cody Bellinger prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
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