It’s a great day for baseball and we have you covered from coast to coast with our favorite MLB player props.
Tonight's selections are headlined by Manny Machado's RBI prowess, as he steps in against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday, June 9.
Best MLB player props today
Baz u5.5 hits allowed (-137)-
Frelick 2+ hits (+380) 
Machado o0.5 RBI (+133)
MLB props for June 9
Shane Baz Under 5.5 hits allowed (-137 at Caesars)
Beyond this situational edge of fading the Boston Red Sox as they come off a Sunday Night Baseball appearance, there are strong reasons to buy low on Tampa Bay Rays SP Shane Baz tonight.
His archetype as a ground ball pitcher is the primary driving factor. The Red Sox's ground-ball rate is slightly above the league average, sitting tied for 10th. That number has increased recently, but even without the most recent adjustment, that mark is still insufficient for a pitcher who induces ground balls at a rate of almost 50%.
We saw this play out in the first matchup of the season when Baz held the Red Sox to just one earned run on two hits through six innings. Outside of a weird start against the Miami Marlins, Baz has held all four of his opponents that rank in the Top 10 of ground-ball rate to fewer than six hits.
While the sample size is small, there’s some historical context that justifies continuing to back Baz as he boasts an elite career ground-ball rate of 44%. In addition to that, an expected ERA sitting nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA screams that he’s a great candidate for positive regression.
With the potential hangover effects lingering after a big series win over the New York Yankees plus the quick turnaround, I expect the Boston offense to be a little sluggish. Using a probability simulation, my fair odds for this prop were -152, and I’d play it to -144 with my MLB picks.
Sal Frelick 2+ hits (+380 at Caesars)
One doesn’t necessarily jump at the opportunity to fade Chris Sale but this is a difficult matchup for the Atlanta Braves ace.
I suspect Sale leaves the game earlier than oddsmakers project with his expected outs around 18. Sale is a strikeout-reliant pitcher and he’s much less efficient when he doesn’t get those whiffs.
The Milwaukee Brewers — and Sal Frelick, specifically — are well-positioned to attack his inefficiencies. The Brewers have issues against lefties when facing elite ground-ball pitchers but since Sale isn’t that, I expect a ton of competitive at-bats.
Specific to Frelick, he’s going to see a ton of sliders. It’s Sale’s best pitch and he’s confident enough in his stuff to ignore what matchups might dictate. That’s why it made up 46% of the pitches he’s thrown this season. Frelick has been exceptional against the pitch this season with a .388 batting average and an expected batting average that follows closely.
Secondly, Frelick consistently puts the ball in play as he owns the second-lowest strikeout percentage and the lowest whiff rate on the team against sliders.
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI (+133 at Caesars)
With his reliance on the ground ball and strikeout, there are clear ways to exploit Los Angeles Dodgers SP Dustin May, and Manny Machado is well-positioned to do just that.
Machado benefits from batting behind two of the San Diego Padres' lowest-strikeout hitters, Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr.
The veteran third baseman's offensive prowess is a secondary aspect. His 38% ground-ball rate and 16.1% strikeout rate are amongst the Padres best, meaning he'll likely get some good contact against May.
Additionally, Machado excels against May's sweeper-sinker approach. As noted by The Bat X, His tendency to hit 40% of fly balls to center field is a key advantage, especially in a ballpark with one of baseball's shallowest center fields.
With favorable lineup protection and intense individual matchup, Machado is primed to capitalize on May's vulnerabilities, which is a key reason why I see this +133 price as offering good value.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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