Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Pete Shows His Power

Prop bet #1: Polar bear power

This is a pick for Pete Alonso's odds, but really, it’s a fade of poor Carlos Carrasco. The veteran right hander has been a great story, but his second tenure with the Cleveland Guardians is not going well.

The homecoming has not gone as planned for Carrasco, who just doesn’t have the same stuff he used to. He's getting hit hard and often, resulting in him pitching to a 5.03 expected ERA while surrendering a .277 expected batting average while striking out just 17.2% of batters he's faced. Those numbers rank in the 18th, 21st, and 19th percentile, respectively.

That means today’s opponent, the New York Mets — and Alonso in particular — pose a big problem for Carrasco. 

Alonso is swinging a hot stick over his last 12 games, hitting .314 with a .901 OPS with two dingers and six doubles. As a result, the Polar Bear has topped 1.5 total bases a whopping nine times during that period.

Our Covers prop projections have Alonso at 2.1 total bases for this matchup against Carrasco, so there's definitely value in the Over at this price. 

Pete Alonso prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Judgment day

Well, Aaron Judge looks like the most dangerous hitter on the planet again. The New York Yankees superstar slugger exploded in May following a slow start to the season, and I like him to keep rolling in tonight’s matchup against the visiting Seattle Mariners.

Judge has been so good the last few years you knew he wasn’t going to hit around .200 for long, and boy, he sure hasn’t. The former American League MVP now has hits in 14 of his last 16 games, raising his batting average from .200 to .271.  

Over those 16 games specifically, Judge is hitting .436 with a ridiculous 1.563 OPS. That includes seven home runs and 10 doubles while walking more times (15) than striking out.

Tonight, he’ll dig into the batter’s box against young Mariners’ starter Bryan Woo. The 24-year-old righty is making just his third start after spending most of the season to this point on the IL due to inflammation in his throwing elbow.

Woo pitched to a 3.45 expected ERA in 2023 and has looked good so far, but those matchups were against the Oakland A’s and the Kansas City Royals — not the Bronx Bombers, who lead the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.

What will make Judge tougher for Woo is the way he attacks hitters. Woo uses his fastball nearly 50% of the time, and Judge has a .322 expected batting average and .809 expected slugging against fastballs this season.

Judge has topped 1.5 total bases 10 times during this crazy 16-game run. At this price, with this matchup, there is value in backing these Aaron Judge odds.

Aaron Judge prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Brandon bounced

The Arizona Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world when they upset the Los Angeles Dodgers in last October’s postseason. But the Dodgers reloaded, adding Shohei Ohtani (among others), and want to prove to the D-backs they are the team to beat this season.

So far, these National League West rivals have played four times with L.A. winning three, outscoring Arizona 25-12. Tonight, the D-backs are hoping they can change their fortunes by handing the ball to Brandon Pfaadt. 

The 25-year-old right hander has been solid for the D-backs this season, pitching to a 3.07 expected ERA with a .238 opponent expected batting average. However, some tougher lineups, like the Braves and Padres, have given him some problems. I expect L.A. to give him the same problems.

Los Angeles obviously boasts one of the most ridiculous lineups in baseball this season, and that lineup has lived up to the hype so far. The Dodgers rank second in the majors when it comes to both OPS and wRC+ when facing RHP in 2024. They have solid numbers vs. Pfaadt, too, as current players have gotten to him for a .300 xBA and a .577 xSLG.

L.A. is also annoyingly patient. The Dodgers have seen the most pitches (7,715) in baseball this season, almost 300 more than the next closest team, and have the fourth-lowest chase rate.

All things considered, they should be able to build up Pfaadt’s pitch count quicker than usual. Despite him working deep into games, he’s averaging just 90.3 pitches per start while topping 90 pitches four times. I don’t expect him to be as efficient against this juggernaut Dodgers lineup, and I am betting on Brandon Pfaadt's odds of going Under 17.5 outs.

To top it all off, our Covers prop projections have Pfaadt more than two outs lower than this number at 15.3.

Brandon Pfaadt prop: Under 17.5 outs (+106 at Caesars)