It’s the weekend, and with that comes a large slate of MLB games. We’ve sifted through the entire MLB odds board for the best value in the MLB player props markets and are ready to dish them out. From stolen bases to strikeouts, we have you covered.
Here are my free MLB picks for player props on Saturday, April 27.
MLB props for April 27
- Glasnow Under 6.5 strikeouts (+105 at bet365)
- Arenado 2+ RBIs (+440 at FanDuel)
- Sano Over 0.5 bases (-130 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 4-27 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Jays break Glas'
Tyler Glasnow has been a strikeout machine this season, but value has opened up on his Unders. Today he’ll face the Toronto Blue Jays, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league. I projected this number at 6, so getting this at plus money in the Tyler Glasnow odds is worth a take.
Glasnow has only gone Under this number once in his last four games, but none of those games have come against teams with a Bottom 5 strikeout rate. Glasnow will deliver a good amount of fastballs, which make up over half of his pitching arsenal, and that’s a good thing for the Blue Jays.
Today, Toronto’s lineup could have up to five batters batting over .250 against the fastball this season. The Jays should be able to make enough contact to drive up Glasnow’s pitch count and have him finish just under this number.
Tyler Glasnow prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (+105 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Arenado hammers Houser
Overall, the matchup for St. Louis Cardinals hitters is a positive one today. Adrian Houser, who will take the mound for the New York Mets, has been poor this season. He’ll come into this game with an ERA over 7.00, a hard-hit rate in the Bottom 25% of the league, and a barrel rate that follows that.
I like the Cardinals to be able to set the table for Nolan Arenado and for him to cash in. There are several things to like about his matchup.
He’ll enter this game with the second-highest batting average against the sinker among Cardinals in the lineup. That’s the pitch that Houser favors by a large margin. In addition, he has the second-highest barrel rate amongst St. Louis players and is likely the most powerful overall in the Cardinals lineup. These have all been trouble spots for Houser this season, and Arenado is well-equipped to take advantage.
Nolan Arenado prop: 2+ RBIs (+440 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Picking on Paddack
I was surprised to see this number this low, as Miguel Sano has a great matchup against Minnesota Twins righty Chris Paddack. Sano has been on a three-game hitless spell, but there are reasons to suggest that he breaks out of it here. One of the most significant issues for Paddack is the hard-hit ball, and that’s great news for Sano.
He’ll enter this game with one of the highest hard-hit rates in baseball. Of course, the sample size is small, but a hard-hit rate of just over 60% is nothing to sneeze at. In addition, Sano should see a decent dosage of changeups depending on how many plate appearances he gets against Paddack. That’s another good sign. He’ll enter this game with the second-highest batting average against change-ups amongst Twins players and the highest expected wOBA against them.
Miguel Sano prop: Over 0.5 bases (-130 at FanDuel)
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