The Philadelphia Phillies hope to improve on a strong start under Don Mattingly when they host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night.
The Phillies are 21-10 so far under Donnie Baseball, and my Padres vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks break down why they’re set to punish Randy Vasquez in a loud way.
Who will win Padres vs Phillies today: Phillies -1.5 (+156)
I keep waiting for the shoe to drop on Randy Vasquez, whose 3.28 ERA is a far cry from his 6.21 xERA. I think tonight’s where we see it happen.
May saw him regress towards the mean, unsurprising given his 13.2% barrel rate and 45.6% hard-hit rate.
Among qualified pitchers, Aaron Nola ranked in the 70th percentile in GB%, soft contact rate, and GB/FB rate in May. He will utilize his curve to key on San Diego’s 47.2% GB% the past two weeks.
I see value on the run line down to +140.
COVERS INTEL: Of 124 SP with 20+ IP in May, Vazquez ranked in the Bottom 15% in soft contact rate (10.9%), GB% (31.9%), and FB% (49.5%).
Padres vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+113)
While I expect Nola to perform better than Vasquez, there’s still a path to a high-scoring game.
The Padres rank 10th in road wRC+ the past two weeks (116 wRC+), while ranking eighth with a .179 ISO. Meanwhile, hitters are slugging Nola’s fastball at a ridiculous .904 clip.
Vasquez is going to struggle with the trio of Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Bryce Harper. Against RHP in May, Harper posted a 46.7% HR/FB rate and 190 wRC+, while Schwarber posted a 61.5% pull% and 41% hard-hit rate.
I’m taking the Over down to +100.
- ML/RL bets: 9-13, -4.94 units
- Over/Under bets: 14-8, +5.28 units
Padres vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Padres +106 | Phillies -117
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-112) | Under 8 (-108)
Padres vs Phillies trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+7.00 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies.
How to watch Padres vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Tuesday, June 2, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Padres starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (5-3, 3.28 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.72 ERA) |
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