Following last night’s near-collapse, the Hoston Astros will wrap up their three-game set with the Washington Nationals and aim for the sweep as -200 MLB odds home favorites with a total of 8.
With Jeremy Pena probable to return tonight and Jose Abreu looking better of late, could it be another short outing for the Washington starter who may be pitching above his numbers to begin the year?
Find out where my best bets lie in my Nationals vs. Astros MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, June 15.
Nationals vs Astros odds
Nationals vs Astros predictions
Key numbers are very important in betting, and it holds true in the pitcher outs market. Getting pitchers to come out in the sixth and seventh inning is a very important aspect of handicapping totals, and when pitchers are projecting to go Under 15 outs (and 18 outs), it gives even more value to their Unders, as all outs aren’t linear.
That’s the case for MacKenzie Gore today. The Nationals starter has an outs market of 16.5, but THE BAT is projecting a solid 14.1 outs on 85 total pitches. That number is giving bettors over 1.5 outs of value plus the value of crossing the key number of 15.
Gore has given up 16 runs over his last 28 innings (five starts) and has been getting in trouble with the home run — seven over his last five starts and a 16.9% HR/FB ratio.
On the whole, Gore has pitched above expectations this season but hasn’t consistently gotten deep into games despite a high pitch count. He’s collected 18 outs in fewer than 50% of his 13 starts and now faces an offense that's without Yordan Alvarez, but has Jose Abreu waking from his early-season slumber and will get Jeremy Pena back.
The Astros offense has also fared better vs. left-handed pitching in terms of run production posting a 113 wRC+ vs. lefties this season vs a 95 wRC+ vs. right-handers.
Even while pitching above expectations, Gore has struggled to get through the sixth inning, and vs. a good offense tonight and possibly regressing to his early-season projections, I understand the bearish projections from THE BAT here.
My best bet: MacKenzie Gore Under 16.5 outs (-115)
Nationals vs Astros same-game parlay
Gore Under 16.5 outs
Bregman Over 0.5 RBI
Javier Over 17.5 outs
Gore will struggle to get deep today, which has plagued the left-hander this year despite numbers that have topped his preseason projections. The Houston offense is still producing without Alvarez and is getting some help with the return of Pena and Abreu turning the corner.
Alex Bregman should see multiple at-bats with the chance to cash in a runner, as Altuve is getting on base and stealing bags and the upgrade from Mauricio Dubon to Pena is significant.
Javier projects for 18.1 outs, per THE BAT, and gets to carve up one of the worst lineups in baseball. He has recorded 18 outs in five of his last seven starts and might not see his pitch count run high as the Nats don't strike eout much and have quicker at-bats.
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Nationals vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Astros closed as roughly -235 home favorites in both games of the series, yet have moved from -235 to -200 for the finale tonight.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros got shorter than -200. Shortstop Pena is probable after manager Dusty Baker told reporters yesterday that he would be in the lineup tonight following a three-game absence with an illness.
Alvarez is still out but Altuve is back up to speed and producing, while Abreu finally hit his first homer at Minute Maid Park last night as an Astro and could be turning a corner after a horrendous start to the season.
Washington did score four runs yesterday, but three came in the ninth inning on a pair of throwing errors. It’s a bad offense that sits 29th in home runs and scores at a bottom-third rate.
The starting pitching matchup is very much in the favor of the home side as well, as Cristian Javier is tiers above Gore, who struggles to get deep and may be pitching above his numbers to date. Houston also handles lefties better than it does right-handed pitching.
Yesterday, the total closed a full run lower than the opener at 7.5 and was a tough beat for Under bettors as a disastrous top of the ninth inning blew that play up. Today’s total opened at 8, briefly hit 8.5, but settled back down to the original 8.
It’s tough to trust this inconsistent Washington offense, especially vs. Javier, who has allowed more than three runs just two times over 13 starts and is coming off a sub-par outing.
Under bettors that shop around might be able to find that 8.5 but I’d prefer to hit the Washington team total Under 3.5 (-133 at Pinnacle) even after last night’s tough beat.
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Trend to know
The Nationals are 0-4 in Gore's last four road starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Astros
Nationals vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, June 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, ATTH |
Starting pitchers
MacKenzie Gore (3-5, 4.04 ERA): Gore is coming off one of his worst and quickest outings, lasting just 82 pitches and giving up five runs to the Braves. He gives up home runs and has a FB/HR rate of 16.9%. The lefty doesn't have any pitch limitations but still struggles to record 18 outs, which is something he has done in six of his 13 starts. THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches, 14.1 outs, 4.5 strikeouts, and 2.88 earned runs.
Cristian Javier (7-1, 3.13 ERA): Javier is also coming off his worst start of the year allowing four runs over five innings to the Guardians. He's been very consistent this season though, having allowed four or more runs in a start just twice to date. He has a 74:19 K/BB ratio and THE BAT projects 98 pitches, 18.1 outs, 5.28 strikeouts, and 2.79 earned runs.
