The New York Mets will try to salvage a game from their series against the Seattle Mariners when they face off for a Sunday Night Baseball matchup on August 11.
The Mets have been shut out twice in a row in Seattle. Can New York find some offense to get a much-needed win for their playoff hopes, or will Luis Castillo shut them down yet again and secure the series sweep?
Keep reading to see my MLB player props for Mets vs. Mariners on Sunday Night Baseball on August 11. Also, be sure to check out our complete Mets vs. Mariners predictions.
Mets vs Mariners Sunday Night Baseball props
- Severino Over 5.5 strikeouts (+112 at FanDuel)
- Castillo Under 18.5 outs recorded (-182 at BetRivers)
- Lindor Over 1.5 total bases (+112 at BetRivers)
Picks made on 8-11 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Mets vs Mariners SNB props
Prop bet #1: Luis Severino Over 5.5 strikeouts
Few teams have struggled more at the plate this year than the Seattle Mariners. Not only are they scoring a paltry 3.94 runs per game, but they’re also leading the majors in strikeouts by a fair margin, averaging 10.2 punchouts per contest.
They’re not facing one of the premier strikeout pitchers in the majors tonight, but Luis Severino can get swings and misses at a reasonable rate. He's hit the 6-strikeout mark in two of his last four games and seven times overall this year. Against an average lineup, his strikeout prop would look perfectly reasonable.
But against a weak lineup, we can expect Severino to go deeper than usual, especially without Julio Rodriguez available for Seattle tonight. The combination of a high-strikeout lineup that’s missing its best weapon suggests that Severino can go after the Mariners and stick around long enough to cash the Over.
Prop bet #2: Luis Castillo Under 18.5 outs recorded
Luis Castillo is having an excellent year for the Mariners, putting up a 3.48 ERA in his 24 starts. As usual, the 31-year-old is pitching to a fairly low WHIP (1.166) while striking out about one batter per inning and keeping the ball in the park — a solid recipe for success.
However, he hasn’t been able to go deep this season. Over his last 11 starts, Castillo has only gone Over six innings twice, and he hasn’t pitched more than seven innings once this year. While he's stayed healthy and reliable, Castillo isn’t an innings eater, with Seattle only relying on him to get to the bullpen with the lead intact — something he’s often failed to do, though that’s rarely been his fault.
If Castillo was going to suddenly find some length this year, it’s unlikely to happen tonight. The New York Mets are averaging 4.79 runs per game, and even with a recent slump in their offensive production, they still have a deep lineup filled with professional hitters that will run up Castillo’s pitch count and get on base enough to prevent him from going into the final third of this game.
Prop bet #3: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases
One player who hasn’t been slumping for New York is Francisco Lindor. The switch-hitting shortstop is hitting .258 with a .786 OPS on the year. Lindor has been even better as of late, hitting to an .825 OPS over his last 23 games, during which time he has five homers and a .289 batting average.
As he has throughout his career, Lindor continues to hit both lefties and righties well, getting on base a bit more against righthanded pitching while showing more pop against southpaws. Castillo also has some extreme platoon splits, allowing left-handed batters to hit .282 against him with a .475 slugging percentage, numbers that Lindor should be able to take advantage of while the starter remains in the game.
Lindor has at least one hit in nine of his last 10 games and has picked up 2+ bases in three of his last four outings. Tonight’s game offers an excellent opportunity for him to continue this success, and with plus-money odds at most sportsbooks, I’m happy to snag this to round out my card.
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