Game 2 of the series between the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants is set for Tuesday night at Oracle Park.
Both teams send right-handed starting pitchers with sub-3.00 ERAs to the mound, and the books are giving a slight advantage to the home team. Looking at MLB odds, the Giants are -130 on the moneyline and the total is set at 7.5.
Read on for my MLB picks and Mets vs. Giants predictions below.
Mets vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Giants moneyline (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
The San Francisco Giants trot out ace Logan Webb on Tuesday. The 27-year-old has been lights out at home in his career, posting a 25-16 record, 2.70 ERA, and 1.13 WHIP across 343 2/3 innings. That’s a huge sample size and he’s been remarkably consistent.
He faces a New York Mets lineup that has gone ice-cold across the last two games. Falling back to Earth following a six-game winning streak, they've scored just two runs in their past two games with more strikeouts (17) than hits (11). One has to like Webb’s outlook on Tuesday night in the Bay.
New York counters with veteran right-hander Luis Severino, who has bounced back from a disastrous 2023 season thus far by lowering his ERA from 6.65 to 2.14. Is the newfound success sustainable?
His ERA finished above 3.40 just once from 2015 to 2022, so it’s possible. However, I’m worried his effectiveness is only temporary due to his inability to make batters miss. His 7.8% swinging strike rate is as poor as it gets and is well below his career average of 11.4%. Until that number stabilizes, I'll bet on regression.
I like the home team to come away with a victory considering Webb has been fantastic at home in his career and the Mets are regressing quickly after a recent hot stretch.
The opening number was bet down from -155 to -130, and I’m a buyer at that price. Some books moved down as far as -120 before seeing some buyback, and I think buying the dip is the correct move.
Mets vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants moneyline
Logan Webb 5+ strikeouts
Michael Conforto 2+ total bases
Webb isn’t known as a huge strikeout pitcher, but he’s notched five punchouts in three of his five starts this season. The Mets are in the habit of swinging and missing recently — the last two starting pitchers (Tyler Glasnow and Keaton Winn) they faced combined for 16 strikeouts.
Michael Conforto looked fired up to play against his former team, going 2-for-4 with a home run in Game 1. He’s recorded a hit in three straight games and I’ll take him to continue swinging the sticks well against Severino, who ranks in the 20th percentile in hard-hit rate, 23rd percentile in whiff rate, and 15th percentile in offspeed run value.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Giants odds
Mets vs Giants live odds
Mets vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-160) | San Francisco -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: New York +125 | San Francisco -150
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Mets vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Francisco has won 28 of its last 47 games at home.
- San Francisco has gone 4-2 over the last six meetings between these two teams.
- Both teams have trended to the Over this season. New York is 12-9 O/U while San Francisco is 13-9 O/U.
- Alternatively, New York has gone Over its first-five team total in just nine of its last 26 away games.
Mets vs Giants trend
The Giants are 4-0 in Webb’s last four starts at Oracle Park. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants
Mets vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WPIX, NBC Sports Bay Area |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (2-1, 2.14 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (2-1, 2.93 ERA) |
Mets vs Giants latest injuries
Mets vs Giants weather
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