Mariners vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Slow Out of the Gates

The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners get an interdivisional four-game set going in Texas on Friday night. The series is the last for each before the All-Star break. 

Both of these teams enter tonight off a rest. The Mariners will enter this game as winners of four of the last five games. They've played much better recently, despite coming off a scoreless loss to the San Francisco Giants. Houston has started to look like, well, Houston. The Astros have won four straight games, including eight of their last 10. They are now just two games back from first in the AL West. 

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Mariners on Friday, July 7.

Mariners vs Astros odds

Mariners vs Astros predictions

In what feels like an extremely even matchup, especially when you factor in the recent strong play of both teams, we will attack what we believe has the most substantial data behind it. And while it's not something I typically do, there's value in it here. We're backing both pitchers to get off to solid starts and taking no run scored in the first inning as our best bet. 

Hunter Brown will take the mound for the Houston Astros, and he's coming off a start that saw him give up the most hits in a single game of his career (10). He escaped allowing just three earned runs. While that wasn't the most he's surrendered this season, it was among the worst he's pitched. With that in mind, he's a strong bounce-back candidate in this spot. 

In April, Brown had two starts where he allowed four earned runs. He followed each of those starts up with scoreless ones. He ended May with a five earned-run showing against the Minnesota Twins, and although he didn't respond with another scoreless start, he did start the game with a scoreless first frame. I'm backing the data more than anything, but I also like this matchup for Brown. He wants to induce soft contact and has one of baseball's highest ground ball rates. He'll get a lineup with three of the first four batters hitting into ground balls over 40% of the time. 

On the other side, we get Luis Castillo for the Seattle Mariners. What else can you say about him? He's in the middle of either the second-best or best season of his career. Even if things have been bumpier lately than usual and his team hasn't helped him much in the win/loss category, I fully expect him to continue that dominance tonight. I also expect that dominance to occur early. 

Castillo relies on overwhelming velocity and a four-seam fastball to get the job done. He will likely face Kyle Tucker, Yainer Diaz, and David Hensley out of the gate tonight. Tucker is the worry here, but if he can get past him, he'll see two players with a negative run value against the fastball. That should make the task of getting through the first inning without allowing a run a pretty straightforward one.

The raw data averaged out between these two teams for a no-run scored in the first inning is 50.5%. Factoring in my projections with that number, I've priced this at -165, giving us some decent value against the line. 

My best bet: No run scored in first inning (-125 at bet365)

Mariners vs Astros same-game parlay

No run first inning

Castillo Under 5.5 hits

Castillo Over 18.5 outs

+750 at bet365

There's a clear direction with tonight's same-game parlay. We're taking our best bet and adding some Castillo props. We're expecting a masterclass from him and attacking the betting market accordingly.

The Astros have been a tricky team to handicap throughout the season, but we know they chase pitches. They are eighth in the league in chase rate, which is a big reason Castillo had so much success against them when he last faced them. Castillo has long carried an elite chase rate, and this season is no different, with a clip that puts him in the Top 15% of the league. I'm expecting a ton of swings and misses created tonight. That goes a long way into cashing both of these props and should mean that he can eat up the innings. 

Castillo has allowed less than six hits in nine of his 17 starts. He's gone Over 18.5 outs in just four of those starts, but he's done in some of the season's biggest games. Against this same Astros team (with a much stronger lineup) and on the road against the Texas Rangers. Given the situation and given that Castillo is due for a gem, we'll take our chances with it here to maximize some profit in a same-game parlay. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mariners vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis

It isn't easy to separate a side here, and I will stay away from doing so. 

The Astros lineup has seen some injuries and absences, making it less potent. Even with that, from top-to-bottom, it has some better production than Seattle. That would naturally lead you to take them on the moneyline tonight. The problem with that? It's immensely tough to fade Castillo, especially with him coming off a rough start. I simply can't and will stay away. Looking at my projections for this one, I priced the Astros' money line at -105. The best price in the market right now is -108.

As for the total, you can probably guess where I'm going with that. I lean towards a low-scoring affair. This strikes me as a tight contest throughout. Both of these teams have been playing well. The series is a chance for both teams to gain ground in the division, and both teams will have a well-rested bullpen. All situational signs point to a low-scoring affair.

I've talked about the pitching matchups too. The Mariners aren't the team built to blow up a ground ball-reliant pitcher. They hit into them at an above-average clip and do it with some of their best players. On the other side, the Astros certainly have hitters capable of hammering the fastball (which they'll see a ton of against Castillo), but this current iteration of its lineup isn't the best one to do that. 

The Under has hit in four of Houston's last five interdivisional games. It's also hit in four of the previous five games for the Mariners against a team with a winning record or starting a right-handed starter. There's a clear direction many of these games have followed, or we're inclined to follow those trends. 

Trend to know

The Under has hit in four of the last five games that the Mariners have played against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros

Mariners vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Luis Castillo (5-6, 3.05 ERA): I've enjoyed watching Castillo pitch this season. From an ERA perspective, it's not been his best season (so far), but it's dangerously close. When Castillo has had his dominant starts this season, he's been as good as any pitcher in the game. But he's also had a decent amount of rough outings. His last start was one of those rough ones when he allowed six runs, four of which were earned, against the Tampa Bay Rays. The areas of concern for Castillo's game are the same for most pitchers with elite velocity. That's the hard-hit ball; he ranks in the bottom 20% of most metrics. He makes up for many of those warts with an elite whiff rate in the top 10% of the league. 

Hunter Brown (6-5, 3.76 ERA): Admittedly, Hunter Brown has been a tricky pitcher for me to figure out this season. The 24-year-old right-handed was due for regression earlier in the season and finally got some – it just came at a time that I had paused on fading him. He arrives at this game off a decent against the Texas Rangers in which he allowed 10 hits but somehow only surrendered three earned runs in four innings. Brown has elite fastball velocity but can struggle to miss bats occasionally, with a whiff rate below average and an expected batting average slightly above it. 

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