The Cleveland Guardians went hitless last night vs. Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros, as the starter tossed the 16th no-hitter in franchise history. But thanks to spot starter Ronel Blanco getting the ball for the home side, the Astros opened as only -140 favorites in the MLB odds this afternoon.
With how infrequently the Astros strike out and a low total out projection, is getting an Under strikeout prop on Tyler Bibee a no-brainer?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Astros for Wednesday, August 2.
Guardians vs Astros odds
Guardians vs Astros predictions
Tanner Bibee’s Under 5.5 strikeouts projects as one of the best +EV bets of the game, and one I’m happy to ride.
Bibee has given the Guardians some solid outings of late, but getting six strikeouts vs. this elite offense is asking a lot. THE BAT is projecting just 4.41 Ks, so bettors are getting a full strikeout of value at -120 after it opened at +115, which is the side of the market I look to be on.
The Cleveland starter has been a K/inning pitcher in his first season in the bigs, but he was also just over nine K/9 at Double-A last season. Houston is the fourth-lowest K% team in baseball and struck out under 20% last month, which was better than its season average.
Bibee can keep this game Under 8.5, but racking up Ks is highly unlikely vs. this offense at home, which is one of four teams striking out at under 20% on the season. He’ll also have a neutral framing catcher in Bo Naylor and a hitter’s umpire in Junior Valentine.
THE BAT is projecting just 15.3 outs, so getting more than a K/inning vs. this offense is going to be difficult. It projects to win at over 65%, and that's about as +EV as you can get.
My best bet: Bibee Under 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Guardians vs Astros same-game parlay
Bibee Under 5.5 strikeouts
Under 8.5
Houston moneyline
Bibee's Under 5.5 Ks has plummeted since opening and the market continues to fall towards THE BAT projection of 4.4. Houston is one of the lowest K% teams in baseball, and even if the Cleveland starter doesn't rack up the punchouts, he can keep this game in check.
It's a getaway game coming off a no-hitter. Blanco is being undervalued here, and he also has a full bullpen behind him. He likely has a short leash if he gets in trouble, and that favors the Under. I have this line at closer to Astros -155, so the -140 is something I'm also backing. The Cleveland offense is so weak, and possibly without Bo Naylor, is even weaker.
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Guardians vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
It was a big day yesterday for the Astros, who picked up Justin Verlander at the deadline and then went out and saw Framber Valdez toss a no-hitter.
Valdez closed as a -190 home favorite last night vs. Gavin Williams with a total of 7.5. The Astros had not named a starter for today’s game as of this morning, so the Big 3 (moneyline/total/runline) were off the board (OTB) before Ronel Blanco was announced and opened as a -140 favorite with an 8.5 total.
There's a hole in the Houston rotation, as Cristian Javier has been pushed back a day. The club has liked the way he’s responded to extra rest.
I think Blanco is being undervalued here. Yes, he is a near-5.00 ERA pitcher, but Houston has a full bullpen to fall back on and they don’t need Blanco to get deep. Despite that, THE BAT has favorable projections for the Houston starter and has him recording nearly 17 outs. His weaknesses (home runs) might not be exploited by a light-hitting Cleveland offense.
Bibee has been a pleasant surprise for the underachieving Guardians and has given the second-place club (two games back from the division lead) some good innings this season. But much like yesterday, it’s the Cleveland offense that holds this club back. With Josh Naylor questionable after missing yesterday with a lower-body injury, it could be another tough game offensively for Cleveland, who will likely see a lot of the Houston bullpen.
Thanks to a 27-out performance from Valdez yesterday, the Astros have all arms available this afternoon and find themselves just a half-game back of the AL West division lead. The Astros have taken care of weaker opponents all season and enter the matinee with a 28-13 SU record vs. opponents with a losing record.
I think Blanco’s leash is short if he falters early, and this rested Houston bullpen can lock the door on the Guardians in what is a getaway game for both teams. It’s tough to predict how either team comes out following a no-hitter, but Bibee has been a solid starter. If he can get his 18 outs and keep the Houston offense in check, I like this Under 8.5 a lot.
Bibee keeps the ball in the park, strikes out a batter per inning, and is 5-0 over his last seven starts with a 2.18 ERA and 46 strikeouts over 41-plus innings.
Both teams are fighting for division leads, so there is no need to let a pitcher sit there and struggle. Both teams have rested bullpens and Houston struggled to produce vs. Gavin Williams last night, finishing with just six hits and two runs. Cleveland has hit the Under in 58% of its games this year, making them a Top-5 profitable Under team.
I do love a good getaway game Under, and the price of the Astros at -140 is still 15 points too short.
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Trend to know
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+15.85 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Astros
Guardians vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 2, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSGL, ATTH |
Starting pitchers
Tanner Bibee (7-2, 3.11 ERA): The rookie right-hander has made 16 starts to date and brings a 91/31 K:BB rate over 89-plus innings with nine home runs allowed and a solid 3.72 FIP. He’s gone at least 18 outs in three straight starts and has a max leash of about 105 pitches. He carries a 1.73 ERA over his last six starts, which includes games vs. Top 10 offenses. The Guardians are 9-7 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 87 pitches, 15.3 outs, 4.42 strikeouts, and 2.83 earned runs.
Ronel Blanco (2-1, 4.70 ERA): Blanco is making his first start since early July and was recalled from Triple-A for a spot start today. He has a 48/24 K:BB rate over 46 innings but also has a 4.65 ERA at Triple-A this season over seven games. He gave up six runs in his last start at Triple-A but also has been stretched out. However, with a fresh bullpen, it’s hard to predict his leash today. THE BAT is projecting 94 pitches, 16.8 outs, 4.21 strikeouts, and 3.21 earned runs.
