We have the second matchup of this three-game NL West series with the Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers. This game is the 13th meeting between these two clubs this season with Los Angeles winning 10 of the first 12 matchups.
Will the Dodgers continue their dominance of Arizona, or can the Diamondbacks pull off the upset as a large home underdog?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks on Tuesday, September 13.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks best odds
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Left-hander Clayton Kershaw is taking the mound for the Dodgers in this contest and should be an excellent candidate to back in the strikeout department. In his two starts since returning from his back injury, Kershaw has picked up right where he left off.
Between those two outings, he produced a 2.45 ERA and 0.82 WHIP while collecting at least six strikeouts in both games. Kershaw proved to be just fine despite sitting out for a month.
Through 17 starts this season, Kershaw is 7-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. We should not expect any regression from the future Hall-of-Famer, who boasts a .254 xwOBA, .214 xBA, and .317 xSLG.
This strong pitching should continue against Arizona, a team that Kershaw has dominated throughout his career. Over his last 17 starts against the Diamondbacks, he is 8-3 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.
Kershaw has recorded at least six strikeouts in 12 of those 17 games. Through 134 career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current Arizona roster possesses a troubling 29.1 strikeout rate.
Since August 1, the Diamondbacks rank just 18th in the league in K% when facing left-handed pitchers. We are getting a generous number on this total because Kershaw will likely be on a short leash once again, due to the Dodgers’ spot in the standings and the necessity to keep him healthy for October.
That being said, he has gone at least five innings in each of his two starts since returning from injury, which should be enough to get to six strikeouts based on the numbers above.
My best bet: Clayton Kershaw Over 5.5 strikeouts (-145)
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
This is a tough game to gauge because betting against the Dodgers and Kershaw is usually a recipe for failure, but the Diamondbacks are also throwing out one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. Taking the mound for Arizona is right-hander Merrill Kelly, who is also someone that is tough to bet against.
Through 28 starts this season, he is 12-5 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Like Kershaw, we should not expect regression from Kelly as he boasts a .279 xwOBA, .221 xBA, and .350 xSLG.
Despite the excellent season, he still struggles to beat the Dodgers as he is 0-3 against them this season and 0-7 in his career.
I think that he has been too good this season to keep struggling against them, which makes me lean towards Diamondbacks +1.5, but there is no way I am putting money down against a Kershaw-led Dodgers team.
Over/Under analysis
As you can probably guess by now, I would lean towards taking the Under in this game. Both pitchers are excellent and the Dodgers possess arguably the best bullpen in baseball.
However, there are two reasons why I am not going with the Under. First of all, Los Angeles rakes against right-handed pitching and can explode at any time, regardless of the pitcher it’s facing.
Secondly, while the Dodgers possess one of the best bullpens in baseball, the Diamondbacks have arguably the worst. Since August 1, Arizona’s relief pitching ranks just 30th in the league in ERA, 25th in WHIP, 24th in BA, 28th in SLG, 28th in wOBA, and 28th in FIP.
To make matters worse, they blew through four relievers last night, including their strongest one, Kyle Nelson. While the Under hit last night, the Over is 13-6-1 (68%) between these two teams’ last 20 combined games.
I lean towards the Under in a Kershaw/Kelly dual, but there are too many concerns in pulling the trigger.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game info
• Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Tuesday, September 13, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Arizona, SportsNet LA
Starting pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.62 ERA): Kershaw has been solid since returning from his back injury, with a 2.45 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in two starts. These games were just more of the same from Kershaw, who continues to dominate anyone in his path in year 15. As always, Kershaw has done an excellent job pumping his slider and 4-seam fastball to set up that tremendous curveball.
Merrill Kelly (12-5, 2.94 ERA): Making his 28th start of the season for Arizona, right-hander Merill Kelly will look to continue the best season of his career. Entering this game in particularly good form, Kelly is 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his last 10 starts.
Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Kelly does a tremendous job utilizing all his pitches as he does not throw one more than 30% of the time. This unpredictability can be frustrating for hitters, which has proven to be the case time and again this season.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
Clayton Kershaw has recorded at least six strikeouts in 12 of his last 17 starts against the Diamondbacks. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Diamondbacks.
