Dodgers vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Will Atlanta Feast in Series Finale?

The two best teams in the National League will wrap up a three-game set tonight at Truist Park as Tony Gonsolin and the underdog Los Angeles Dodgers look to sweep 24-year-old pitcher Bryce Elder and the Atlanta Braves.  

Despite a pair of sub-2.10 ERAs on the mound, MLB odds have the total sitting at 9.5 with the Dodgers offense putting up 16 runs in two games this series. The Braves bats also have a great matchup vs. an outperforming starter and an overused L.A. bullpen.

I break it all down in my MLB betting picks for Dodgers vs. Braves below.

Dodgers vs Braves odds

Dodgers vs Braves predictions

With Tony Gonsolin likely not getting too deep and giving way to a bullpen that will probably be without three relievers, including co-closers Brusdar Graterol and Evan Phillips, the Atlanta Braves offense has an edge tonight. Considering this game has a total pushing 10, oddsmakers are also expecting the home side to plate some runs.

Gonsolin has been great out of the gates with a sub-1.20 ERA over five starts, but his xERA sits 2.33 points above his actual ERA, which is not a number he can sustain over time. He’s not a heavy K/9 pitcher and now faces one of the best lineups in baseball. 

THE BAT has Gonsolin projected for 2.7 earned runs over less than 15 outs, which would leave plenty of innings for an overused bullpen that currently has the league’s No. 25 ERA. If Atlanta and the NL’s No. 1-ranked offense in wOBA can get nearly three runs off the L.A. starter, doubling that vs. this bullpen is highly probable.

The Atlanta team total Over 4.5 is -114 at Pinnacle and bettors shouldn’t be afraid of Gonsolin’s ERA to back the Braves offense — especially in a game oddsmakers have set the total at 9.5. The L.A. offense can also push Bryce Edler and the Atlanta bullpen so two-way scoring and a tight game are projected.

My best bet: Braves team total Over 4.5 (-114 at Pinnacle)

Dodgers vs Braves moneyline analysis

Atlanta has seen a slight adjustment in their moneyline odds after opening at -115 and moving to the current price of -120.

Atlanta was a decent -156 ML favorite in the opener (Charlie Morton vs. Evan Phillips) but lost the starting pitcher matchup they were favored to win in an 8-6 loss. That happened again yesterday as Spencer Strider was a -187 home favorite and lost 8-1 to Bobby Miller. 

It’s tough to back the Braves tonight in a pitching matchup the books have moved the ML nearly 40 points in favor of the visitors compared to the opener. However, with a total of 9.5, both offenses can produce tonight which creates more uncertainty on the side and is why the books have it as a near pick'em.

Both bullpens have been overworked in the series and the Dodgers will likely be without two of their closers in Phillips and Graterol, which hurts an already underperforming bullpen. 

THE BAT doesn’t project either starter to go far so this game could certainly be decided in the later innings. The Braves have used their two best arms in closer Ryan Helsley and setup man Giovanny Gallegos in back-to-back days likely making them unavailable tonight.

Basically, we have two overrated starting pitchers who are unlikely to keep pitching at their current rates and who are projected to leave 12 or more outs for two bullpens that are missing their best arms. There could certainly be some lead changes — especially with the two best offenses in the NL.

Considering where the moneyline odds were in the opener on Monday, I feel the line might have gone too far toward the Dodgers (and the market is believing that too), but with so much uncertainty expected in the later innings, I’m staying away.

Dodgers vs Braves Over/Under analysis

It’s not often bettors see a pitching matchup of a 1.20 ERA vs. a 2.06 ERA and have a total that moves from 9 to 9.5, but that’s what bettors are seeing tonight at Truist Park.

This high total is a culmination of oddsmakers knowing both of today’s starters are pitching above their numbers while also having two of the best offenses in baseball going head-to-head.

Truist Park will have near-80-degree temps with a slight wind blowing out to right field. The decent hitting conditions could also be driving the market to hit the Over. 

Early Over bettors got ahead of the market knowing that both clubs are also likely without their two best relievers after being used in back-to-back games. 

The Dodgers relievers have already been used heavily this year (seventh in innings pitched) and with Gonsolin projected for under 15 outs, there are going to be more innings to eat for a shorthanded pen.

Ultimately, I’m not interested in the Over 9.5 after missing the flat 9. I’d prefer taking the favorites on the team total Over 4.5 but oddsmakers are liking runs tonight and plenty of those could come late. 

Dodgers vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 1.13 ERA): Gonsolin will be starting his sixth game of the season tonight and although he’s tossed just 24 innings, he’s allowed just 13 hits and has seen some decent competition. His leash might not be long but he’ll give quality innings and hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 1. He hit 94 pitches in his last start and THE BAT projects 13.7 outs, 4.36 strikeouts, and 2.7 earned runs.

Bryce Elder (3-0, 2.06 ERA): Elder was a decent pitcher at Triple-A (4.46 ERA in 2022) but he has exploded in the Big Leagues and his stuff is playing well with the big club. There are some red flags here though, as his xERA is 2.5 points higher than his current ERA and he's stranding 85% of his runners. The right-hander does get plenty of groundballs (56.1%) but his current numbers are unsustainable long term. THE BAT projects 85 pitches, 14.8 outs, 3.98 strikeouts, and 2.88 earned runs. 

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The Over is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ last four games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Braves

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