An NL Central clash gets going on the South Side of Chicago tonight when the 25-19 Cubs play host to the 19-25 Pirates.
Although Pittsburgh has dropped two in a row and is coming off a 10-2 drubbing at the hands of Milwaukee, our Pirates vs. Cubs predictions expect the Bucs to bounce back on Thursday.
Read more in our MLB picks for May 16.
Pirates vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Pirates moneyline (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Pirates are going through some growing pains, but there is no doubt that with the likes of Oneil Cruz, Jared Jones, and Paul Skenes all in the major leagues, this is one of the most exciting young rosters in baseball.
Tonight, they will open a three-game weekend series with National League Central rivals, the Chicago Cubs. This will be the second series between these two teams in less than a week with the Cubbies taking two of three at PNC Park.
One of those games was started by Jones, which the Pirates lost 7-2, but I like their odds to strike back with Jones taking the ball at hallowed Wrigley Field tonight.
It’s crazy to think Jones could be a little overlooked with the promotion of Skenes, but he shouldn’t be. The 22-year-old Jones has been outstanding. The right-hander is pitching to a 3.06 expected ERA, limiting opponents to a .227 expected batting average and striking out 30.6% of the batters he has faced.
The other impressive thing about Jones is his command. He is walking just 3.9% of batters faced, which ranks in the Top 6% of pitchers in the league.
In his most recent outing against the Cubs he earned a quality start, holding the Cubs to two earned runs on seven hits over six innings. I like Jones’ chances of improving on those numbers this time around.
That’s because the Cubs are a middling lineup when it comes to handling right-handed pitching. Chicago ranks 21st in batting average, 15th in OPS, and 14th in wRC+ vs. righties this season. The team also has the 12th-highest K-rate.
Meanwhile, Chicago counters with Opening Day starter Justin Steele. The lefty could still be shaking off some rust after missing a month with a hamstring strain. This will just be his fourth start of the season and he is pitching to a 4.21 expected ERA while surrendering a .261 opponent-expected batting average over his three starts. Those rank in the 39th and 30th percentile, respectively, among MLB starters.
Steele also hasn’t been pitching too deep into games so far, with 4 2/3 innings being his longest outing to this point. That could mean extended innings for a Cubs bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA and 19th in xFIP.
Jones will keep the Buccos in this one early, allowing the lineup to take advantage of that matchup with the bullpen. I like the value the Pirates as road underdogs here.
Pirates vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Pirates moneyline
Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 RBI
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 total bases
Cruz will also be a part of the Pirates' success tonight. In my MLB player prop picks, I took him to go Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI, but let’s just go with RBI for this same-game parlay as it is available at most sportsbooks.
He just saw an eight-game hitting streak go by the boards but went a scorching 13 of 31 with five doubles and dingers in that stretch. That’s good for a .419 batting average and a 1.326 OPS. He also drove in eight runs during that streak and is 2-for-5 with a double and a dinger in his career vs. Steele.
Let’s close this SGP out with a Cody Bellinger prop. Belli has been hot after a cold start to the season, hitting .344 with a 1.065 OPS over his last 16 games. That includes going 4-for-5 with two doubles and a home run in that last game against Jones and the Pirates.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
Pirates vs Cubs live odds
Pirates vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-190) | Chicago -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +115 | Chicago -135
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Pirates vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cubs opened this NL Central matchup as -135 home favorites but its the Pirates seeing the early action with the line moving down to Chicago -125.
- The Cubs took two of three in the latest series against the Pirates, but both of tonight's starters lost games in that series.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 and that's where it remains as of Thursday afternoon.
- Both Pittsburgh (19-22 O/U) and Chicago (18-24 O/U) have been Under teams this season but the Over went 2-0-1 in their series last weekend.
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Pirates vs Cubs trend
The Pirates have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games for +2.35 Units and a 29% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs
Pirates vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNP, Marquee |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Jared Jones (2-4, 2.68 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (0-0, 4.73 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries
Pirates vs Cubs weather
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