The Chicago Cubs seek their fifth win in seven games when they visit the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday afternoon.
Pittsburgh is reeling, with just four wins in its last 15, including a 7-2 beatdown in the series opener against the Cubbies on Friday.
The books don’t seem to mind, listing both teams at -110 on the moneyline in the MLB odds, but my Cubs vs. Pirates prediction feels the road team has an edge.
Read below for my May 11 free MLB picks.
Cubs vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Pirates are one of the most offensively-challenged teams in major league baseball, with the third-fewest runs scored, a paltry 3.49 per game.
Pittsburgh’s 28 home runs are the fewest in the bigs, so it’s no surprise it ranks last in slugging percentage, while posting Bottom-3 marks in batting average and OPS.
There’s no relief in sight, either, as they’ll be squaring off against lefty Justin Steele, who’s been solid in two starts this season, holding batters to a .188 average.
Steele has had two no-decisions, but has a crisp 0.96 ERA to go along with a 0.86 WHIP. Last time out, he gave up just three hits over 4.2 innings, with no runs and a walk, with two strikeouts.
Compared to Pittsburgh, the Cubs are an offensive juggernaut, sitting outside the Top 10 in runs scored, putting up 4.64 per contest.
While they’re on the fringes of the Top 10 in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS, Chicago also boasts an above-average pitching staff.
Their 3.68 team ERA ranks 11th, while limiting opponents to a .235 average, which sits 12th.
The Cubs have had the Pirates’ number of late in this head-to-head, with seven wins in the last 10, but Pittsburgh is hoping highly-touted rookie Paul Skenes, who makes his much-anticipated debut in front of the home fans at PNC Park, can turn the tide Saturday.
Skenes has ripped through AAA ball, posting a 0.99 ERA in seven starts, holding batters to a .175 average. He also has only surrendered a single home run in his 27.1 innings of work.
While Skenes looks promising, there’s not much support behind him. Steele should give the Cubs the advantage, and extend Pittsburgh’s prolonged misery for another day.
Cubs vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Justin Steele Over 6.5 strikeouts
Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 bases
Not a lot of mystery to picking Steele to go Over his 5.5 strikeout total as part of this SGP.
The Pirates have had trouble putting bat on ball, currently fifth in the majors in total strikeouts with 364.
He’s surpassed that total once in his two starts this season, fanning six Texas Rangers in 4.2 innings in his first start of 2024.
Steele touched the six-strikeout mark in each of his two 2023 starts against the Pirates, across nine innings of work. I expect him to be right around that figure again.
I’m taking Nico Hoerner’s total bases to make this a three-legged ticket.
Hoerner — who leads Chicago in total hits — went 0-fer Wednesday against the Padres, snapping his seven-game hit streak, but he bounced right back with a hit in the Cubs’ win Friday.
During this streak, he’s picked up at least two bases in six of those eight games. Against a rookie pitcher in his debut? That’s got to be advantage Hoerner.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Pirates odds
Cubs vs Pirates live odds
Cubs vs Pirates opening odds
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+157) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-176)
- Moneyline: Chicago -112 | Pittsburgh +104
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Cubs vs Pirates spread and Over/Under analysis
- Chicago has won eight straight day games against the Pirates.
- Pittsburgh has lost seven of its last 10.
- The Over has hit in six straight matchups.
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Cubs vs Pirates trend
The Under has hit in 22 of 38 Cubs games this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs Pirates
Cubs vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, SNP |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (0-0, 0.96 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries
Cubs vs Pirates weather
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