The world of baseball is a better place when Clayton Kershaw is on the mound.
Kershaw returned to the rotation a week ago after a six-week absence due to left shoulder inflammation and gets his second go-around on Wednesday night.
The veteran lefty leads the Los Angeles Dodgers (71-46) as they search for their 10th victory in a row as arguably the hottest team in baseball.
Will the visiting Milwaukee Brewers (65-54) have anything to say about that winning streak?
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Dodgers on Wednesday, August 16.
Brewers vs Dodgers odds
Brewers vs Dodgers predictions
Clayton Kershaw is an ageless wonder who hasn’t had an ERA above 4.00 since his rookie season back in 2008. Since then, his season-long ERA has been in the 1.00s three times, the 2.00s 10 times, and the 3.00s twice. He’s right back to his usual effectiveness with a 2.51 ERA across 100 1/3 IP in 2023 and is showing few signs of slowing down.
The crafty vet looked good in his return to the rotation on August 10, lasting five innings while allowing a single earned run on three hits and no walks against the Colorado Rockies. He consistently found the zone as 45 of his 67 pitches went for strikes. Considering the low pitch count from that start, it’s doubtful we see him handle a full workload but he should come closer to doing so as he ramps up.
There’s another veteran left-hander on the bump on the other side of things — Milwaukee’s Wide Miley. He hit a milestone with his 300th career start in his last outing, allowing a single earned run on two hits and three walks across six innings (also against the Rockies) to lower his ERA to 2.90 on the year.
While his surface-level numbers are impressive, both his 4.69 xERA and 4.42 FIP are much less encouraging. He’s never been one to rely on strikeouts (17% K-rate) and instead thrives on limiting hard contact. The issue this year is that his barrel rate of 8.2% is the highest it’s ever been in his nine-year career.
Consider it safe to say that I’m finding it difficult to trust a pitcher who checks in at the 27th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, the 23rd percentile in xSLG, the 21st percentile in xBA, and the ninth percentile in Whiff% — especially in such a tough matchup,
LA has mashed left-handed pitching this season, posting a 119 wRC+ (third) and .345 wOBA (also third). They’ve been even better in the month of August, sporting a cool 159 wRC+ and .409 wOBA while notching the most plate appearances in the league (225) against southpaws to rack up enough of a sample size that we can trust.
That gives them a substantial advantage over the Brewers, who have posted an 89 wRC+ (25th) and .304 wOBA (22nd) against lefties this season.
The Dodgers have a notable advantage both on the mound and at the plate and are looking for their 10th straight win. Seven of those wins have come by two or more runs and I think there’s strong reason to believe that’ll be the case again on Wednesday.
I’ll take their run line for -105 odds as my best bet.
My best bet: Dodgers -1.5 run line (-105 at BetMGM)
Brewers vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Dodgers -1.5 (-105)
Dodgers team total Over 4.5 (-120)
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases (-105)
This SGP will be a three-legger centered around my best bet on the Dodgers run line as outlined above.
The next play will be for the Dodgers to score at least five runs and therefore exceed their team total of 4.5 in this contest. Dave Roberts’ squad has been very profitable on its team total lately, hitting the Over in 69 of their last 114 games for a 13% ROI. If you bet their Over every time during that stretch, you’d be up 17.75 units — a pretty penny indeed! The weather does seem to favor runs as the wind will be blowing out to right field at 9.2 mph at the time of first pitch.
The final leg features Dodgers star Mookie Betts to record 2+ total bases. He’s absolutely destroyed Miley in their prior meetings, getting on base 11 times while recording an out just 10 times. That’s one way to post a .524 OBP and 1.366 OPS against an opposing pitcher. This third leg brings out total SGP odds to +290.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Brewers vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers are currently a sizable favorite between -225 and -250 depending on where you look while the best comeback on the Brewers is +198. Shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure you snare the best price available before placing your bet.
LA’s nine-game winning streak has come across four different series. First, they took the last two games against the San Diego Padres by a combined score of 21-9. Next, they swept a two-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks while limiting them to just four runs. Then came a four-game sweep of the Rockies in dominant fashion — their division mates mustered just six total runs. Most recently, LA notched a 6-2 victory over Milwaukee in Game 1 of this series.
The Dodgers have been masterful at home, notching a 39-20 record on the year. The Brewers haven’t been anything special on the road with a 32-28 record straight up and a 24-36 mark to the run line.
The total opened at 8.5 and that is where it remains across the board as of the time of this writing.
Playing the Over in Dodgers games has generally been the way to go this season as they are 68-44 O/U. The opposite can be said of Milwaukee and its 53-62 O/U record.
Funny enough, both teams have flipped their season-long tendencies during recent games. LA has been on a run to the Under in its winning streak, going 1-6 O/U in its last seven games. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is 5-2 O/U in its last seven games.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users can get up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet loses at BetMGM! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 home games against the Brewers. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Dodgers
Brewers vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, SNLA |
Starting pitchers
Wade Miley (6-2, 2.90 ERA): If it still surprises you to see Miley with an ERA below 3.00, you’re not alone. The veteran left-hander has found a groove in the late stages of his career, notching a 3.37 ERA in 2021, a 3.16 ERA in 2022, and now a 2.90 ERA in 2023. How low can he go? Considering his 4.69 xERA and 4.42 FIP, probably not much lower!
Clayton Kershaw (10-4, 2.51 ERA): Kershaw has been highly effective in his age-35 season, which shouldn’t come as a surprise considering he posted a stellar 2.28 ERA across 126 1/3 IP a year ago. His 3.49 xERA and 3.56 FIP are both a run higher than his actual ERA of 2.51 this season, which isn’t what you’d like to see but they are still solid numbers.
