The Los Angeles Dodgers are riding an eight-game winning streak and enter tonight’s series opener vs. the visiting Milwaukee Brewers with a league-best 20-8 SU record since the break. Bobby Miller will take on Adrian Houser as a -220 home favorite with a total of 9.
With the Dodgers offense rolling, Mookie Betts back in the saddle, and the wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium, is it going to be another short outing for the Milwaukee starter who is coming off a 67-pitch outing vs. the lowly Rockies?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Dodgers for Tuesday, August 15.
Brewers vs Dodgers odds
Brewers vs Dodgers predictions
Adrian Houser is projected to have a tough night at Dodger Stadium tonight and his Under markets are starting to get plenty of action.
THE BAT is projecting just 13.6 outs and just 2.77 strikeouts over 81 pitches. It’s a fair projection for a short-leashed starter who threw just 67 pitches vs. a weak Colorado offense in his last outing and gave up four runs on five hits.
Over Houser’s last five starts since the All-Star break, he’s allowed at least three earned runs in four of those five starts where he has a 5.74 ERA and the Braves tagged him for nine total runs over two starts. He’s a ground-ball pitcher who doesn’t miss many bats (7% SwingStk rate), and facing an elite offense with great hitting conditions in a solid hitter's park is a bad setting for the right-hander.
His total outs have shortened up drastically since this morning but I’m still happy paying the tax when getting the total on the other side of the key number of 15. BetRivers has an Under 15.5 outs at -143, which still shows better than a 10% difference from the implied vs. the projected number of 13.6.
Houser is a pitcher who doesn’t see the sixth inning very often and this LA offense has held opposing starters to Under 15.5 outs in six of its last nine games with Merrill Kelly and Yu Darvish being two of those Overs.
If the -143 price is too steep for you, the Under 3.5 strikeouts at -125 (bet365) also projects +EV with a 2.77 projection.
The Dodgers’ offense will eat tonight at Dodger Stadium.
My best bet: Adrian Houser Under 15.5 outs (-143 at BetRivers)
Brewers vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Adrian Houser Under 3.5 strikeouts (-125)
Houser Over 2.5 earned runs (-150)
Bobby Miller to record the win (+145)
I'm continuing to fade Houser and although bettors can't add outs to the bet365 SGPs anymore, his Under 3.5 Ks and Over 2.5 earned runs both project well. It could be another sub-15-out performance from the Milwaukee starter after struggling against the worst offense in baseball (Colorado) his last time out. The hitting conditions are also working against Houser. Things could get really ugly if J.D. Martinez finds his way back into the lineup.
Bobby Miller to record the win correlates well here. He is projected to go over 15 outs and even if he gives up two runs, could still be in line for the win. Both bullpens are rested and the scoring could settle down late but I trust the LA bullpen to hold Miller's likely lead.
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Brewers vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Brewers enter tonight riding a four-game winning streak after sweeping the White Sox over three road games, but the hosting Dodgers have doubled that win streak with a perfect 8-0 run and a league-best 20-8 SU record since the All-Star break.
The Dodgers have a big starting pitching advantage tonight as Houser could be in trouble from the first pitch with winds blowing out at Dodger Stadium and having to face one of the best slugging teams in baseball. Mookie Betts is back in the lineup and he and Freddie Freeman both rank in the Top 4 in slugging on the season.
LA also has four batters with at least 23 homers, although Martinez is unlikely after missing the last five games. However, he hasn’t moved to the IL, so there is still a chance he goes today, which would only boost the Dodgers’ bats in a great matchup.
If you’ve ever bet Houser Overs, you know how short of a leash he has and how many pitches per batter he burns through. He's averaging just 87 pitches per start over his last five games where he owns a 5.74 ERA and has allowed more than a hit per inning while striking out 28 over 26-plus innings. Atlanta roughed him up for nine runs over 10 innings in two of those five starts and a similar fate could be in store tonight.
The Dodgers opened at -200 and moved to -220 by this afternoon. The move is warranted as Miller looks to be back from some rookie struggles and is coming off arguably his best start of the year, going six scoreless vs. Arizona. The hard-throwing rookie has allowed more than three earned runs in just three of his 13 starts and averages 98.8 mph on his sinker.
Houser is not a pitcher I want to ride on the road vs. the Dodgers at +200 or shorter. He’s a groundball pitcher, but with an 18% strikeout rate, he is going to need contact to get outs. With the winds blowing out and the Dodgers the No. 2 hitting lineup in baseball, that’s a scenario where Houser can get hit hard and often.
With Rowdy Tellez, Jesse Winker, and to a lesser extent Blake Perkins all unavailable for the visitors, the Brewers will struggle to plate runs vs. Miller and a solid LA bullpen after feasting on the White Sox in their previous series. That has me off the Over 9.5 but the Dodgers’ team total Over 2.5 in the first five innings is the best non-prop bet tonight, in my opinion.
It’s -132 but considering Houser projects for 3.32 earned runs over 13.6 outs, per THE BAT, that’s a solid +EV play. LA’s best matchup in this game is vs. the Milwaukee starter and things will get more difficult for the favorites in the later innings vs. a rested Milwaukee bullpen.
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Trend to know
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the team total Over in 68 of their last 113 games (+16.65 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Dodgers
Brewers vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, Spectrum |
Starting pitchers
Adrian Houser (4-3, 4.38 ERA): Houser will be making his 15th start of the season and carries a 62:26 K:BB rate over 78 innings with nine home runs allowed. The short-leashed starter is a ground-ball pitcher who has gone more than 15 outs in just seven of his 16 appearances. He owns a 5.74 ERA since the ASB and the Brewers are 10-6 SU when he pitches. THE BAT projects 81 pitches, 13.6 outs, 2.77 strikeouts, and 3.31 earned runs.
Bobby Miller (6-2, 3.89 ERA): Miller will be making his 14th MLB start, and the rookie pitcher who averages 98.8 mph on his sinker is coming off his third scoreless start of the season. He has 66 punchouts with 21 walks over 69-plus innings while opposing batters are hitting .243 off of the righty on the season. The Dodgers are 9-4 SU when he pitches and THE BAT is projecting 89 pitches, 15.9 outs, 4.83 strikeouts, and 2.67 earned runs.
