Blue Jays vs Red Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Gausman Serves as Stopper

The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will wrap up a four-game series in Boston this evening.

Toronto needs a win, and soon. The Bluebirds are scuffling at the moment. They've fallen to third place in the AL East with four straight losses, but the damage isn't limited to that. If they lose tonight, the Red Sox will complete a four-game sweep and pass Toronto in the divisional standings.

Boston has played some quality baseball over the last week, especially from an offensive perspective. Last night marked the fifth straight game that it scored six or more runs.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on May 4.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions

As we said, Toronto needs a win. Today we have a situation where the oddsmakers and I are betting them to get it done.

The Jays have a distinct pitching advantage. They have a guy on the mound who has been an ace for them this season. I'm not sure that's accurately accounted for by oddsmakers, and I'm grabbing the Blue Jays early.

Toronto has been on a cold streak, but this is still an excellent baseball team. In addition, Kevin Gausman is still Kevin Gausman, and that's a bad thing for the Red Sox today. If Gausman can limit the hard contact today, he will be in a position to dominate. He does all the little things right, like boosting a walk percentage among the best in the league. That's a big deal when facing a Red Sox team who has gotten a walk influx in this series, including four last night.

The other thing here is the effectiveness of Gausman's split-finger against the Red Sox hitters. It's been a dynamite pitch for him and a hard one for the Red Sox players to hit. With this pitch, he's allowed an eye-popping expected slugging rate of .127. To make matters worse, Boston has barely seen that pitch this season and won't have a single player in its lineup with a positive run value against it. So this one single pitch and Gausman's mastery of it makes things bound to go well for him today.

On the other side, Brayan Bello doesn't impress and fits the mold of a pitcher that the Jays could light up. His ERA is a bit overinflated, but we've seen enough from him last season to know that some of his issues likely aren't changing anytime soon. In addition, Bello is in the Bottom 15% of baseball in both hard-hit rate and expected batting average. This Blue Jays offense has been held down in some portions of this series, and they have too many good hitters for that to continue. So what better time to back them than in a spot to avoid a sweep facing a pitcher who gives up tons of contact?

Toronto will get going early tonight. The added motivation of not wanting to be swept by a divisional foe helps. Still, the pitching advantage it owns is excellent. Take the Jays to lead after five innings.

My best bet: Blue Jays First Five Innings -0.5 (-120 at Sports Interaction)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline analysis

We like Toronto tonight to avoid a sweep.

We can go into the numbers of the pitching matchup, but the simple fact is that this is still a good baseball team. There are obvious flaws, but most are related to the pitching staff, and I'm expecting no such issue tonight — especially early.

This feels like a bit of misprice with Gausman on the mound. I saw more value in the early line than in the full-game one. My projections priced the Jays to lead after five innings at around -145, while the full-game price was much more closely in line with our current forecast. Bello's fastball struggles should show up here against a team of hitters batting over .300 against the four-seamer.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis

This total feels about right to me.

We grabbed the Over last night and saw its cash in the seventh inning. We also noted the profitability of the Over bet when these two teams locked horns. It's hit every game in the series and now has hit seven games in a row when these two teams have played one another. I'm just not sure if that run continues tonight, though.

I projected a total of 8, and we've got several 8.5s. I'm not thrilled with the proposition of taking an Under in this series for obvious reasons. Still, I'm not jumping at the Over either.

Winds will be blowing in, and it will be a cooler night in Fenway. If there was a night for low scoring between these two, it would be this evening when ball carry is reduced. If we see a few early runs, I'll look to jump on a live Under. Otherwise, it's a pass for me.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info

Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kevin Gausman (2-2, 2.33 ERA): Over the last two weeks or so, Gausman has unquestionably been the steady hand among the Jays' starting pitchers. He's surrendered exactly zero earned runs over his last two starts against the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners — that's 14 innings of scoreless baseball. He's been able to give Toronto length too, which is pretty important for a bullpen that's been a bit rocky. In three of his last four starts, he's gone seven innings or more and thrown over the century mark in pitches.

Brayan Bello (0-1, 6.57 ERA): You might not know it from the slash stats, but Bello has improved as the season has gone on. His first start of the season was abysmal. It came against the Los Angeles Angels, and they terrorized him. Bello was hit for five earned runs, including one longball, and barely got out of the second inning. Since then, though, we've seen some steady improvement from Bello. He comes into this one off a one earned run, five-inning appearance facing off against the Cleveland Guardians — a team that is never easy to pitch against.

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The Over is 7-0 between these two teams in the last seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox

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