Blue Jays vs Red Sox Predictions, Picks, Odds: Manoah Gets Mauled and Pivetta Gets Pummeled

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox will play the third of a four-game series on Wednesday night.

Boston has taken two of the first three in this series, with both wins coming by just a single run. Over the past week or so, the Red Sox have taken some strides and look like an improved team. They go into this one riding a four-game winning streak that Toronto will look to break.

For those Blue Jays, things have been on a slide for the moment. I mentioned the two straight losses to open this series, but Toronto also lost the final game of their prior series vs the Seattle Mariners.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on May 3.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions

These two teams have scored 24 runs over their last 18 innings of playing one another. That's over a run per inning, and I'm not seeing it slowing down tonight. So I'm making the Over my best bet.

Yes, Alek Manoah is on the bump for the Blue Jays, but he has yet to be that Alek Manoah this season. Unlike some others that may be positive regression candidates, I don't think Manoah fixes this quickly. I'm not suggesting Manoah can't return to his dominant self, but it's unlikely it will happen tonight.

A few mechanical issues in some of his secondary pitches have hurt him this season, particularly the slider. It was a very effective pitch for him a season ago, and he hasn't been one this year. Hitters have knocked it around to a .360 batting average and a .760 slugging percentage.

Unfortunately for Manoah, the slider is a pitch that the Red Sox will be able to key on, and they've raked against it this season. Depending on the lineup that Boston runs out today, we could see a team with up to four batters who have hit over .300 against the slider this season. Of course, that's in addition to some tremendous power numbers they've racked up. Boston is in the Top 10 of barrel rate and exit velocity, and has been in the Top 5 of both categories over the past two weeks. That's problematic for Manoah, as he sits in the Bottom 25% in barrel rate.

On the other side, we have Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has been pounded to start his season, and I'm not expecting the remedy for that to be facing the Jays. As has been the case over the past few years, Toronto once again boasts some of the best power bats in baseball. Pivetta is a fastball-heavy pitcher, and he's struggled mightily with it this season. And again, that's not the issue you want facing the Jays.

To no surprise, they have raked all season against the four-seam fastball. Four players in today's lineup have hit over .400 against it this season, and five have a slugging average of over .500 against it. I expect Toronto to light up Pivetta today, as it is the perfect matchup.

I'm comfortably backing the Over today. Although it will be a cooler night in Fenway Park, getting this below a double-digit total is still a steal.

My best bet: Over 9.5 (-106 at Sports Interaction)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox moneyline analysis

I'm uncomfortable backing a side here, but I lean toward Boston.

My projections make them the favorite, which is hard to pass up given they are widely available at a price north of +120. Alek Manoah is still priced like a Cy Young candidate, but his form has been far from that. At some point, Manoah will bounce back and have a few dominating performances. You'd hate to stand in front of that, and that's my apprehension here.

There's also the part about Toronto being more desperate for a win. The Jays have played some poor baseball for about a week now, and there's extra motivation not to lose three straight to a division rival.

I'll be passing on a side here. The analytics and projections say one thing, but the spot says something different.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis

I projected 10 runs in this one, which gave me enough of an edge to happily bet the Over.

I mentioned the pitchers' struggles above in great detail, but it's worth repeating. Both pitchers have struggled with particular pitches, and both teams have had success hitting those specific pitches. This natural strength-on-weakness is a good angle to back for Over bettors. It's also one that I can't pass up, given the power hitters both of these teams boast.

The Over has been profitable whenever these two teams meet up. It's gone Over in the first two games of this series, but beyond that, the games between these two teams have gone Over in six straight meetings. We're backing tonight to be the seventh straight one.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox game info

Blue Jays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Alek Manoah (1-1, 4.88 ERA): I'm concerned about Manoah, if I'm being candid. His WHIP of 1.63 to start the season is well off his career average, but his expected ERA of over 6.00 suggests things could be even worse. While his velocity isn't down, there are issues with some of the mechanics we've seen. His slider has been a terrifically effective pitch for him throughout his career, but so far this year, it's lost several inches of break. Consequently, batters have hit over .300 against it. You'd bet on Manoah to eventually return to his dominant ways, but for now, I will have to see it to believe it.

Nick Pivetta (1-2, 5.11 ERA): Pivetta has been blasted to start the season. He has a hard-hit rate that places him in the Bottom 2% of baseball, and a barrel rate in the Bottom 4%. He's been able to get through some games with compelling pitches that make batters chase, with a chase rate above average. Outside of that, though, he's struggled. In his last start against the Cleveland Guardians, Pivetta gave up four earned runs in five innings.

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The Over is 6-0 between the Red Sox and Blue Jays in their last six head-to-head games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs Red Sox

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