In a scenario where the Toronto Blue Jays have remained fairly healthy, this has got to be the darkest timeline.
Following last night’s loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, the Blue Jays have now lost five in a row and are 1-11 in their last 12 games against American League East opponents. They sit at 25-23 and in the AL East, that’s good for last place.
So, who are the Blue Jays relying on to break free of the darkest timeline? Unfortunately, it’s Jose Berrios, whose road splits may have you thinking he is the evil version of himself when pitching away from the Rogers Centre. Heck, he already has a goatee.
I break down the MLB odds for Game 2 of this four-game set and bring you my best bet in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Rays on Tuesday, May 23.
Blue Jays vs Rays odds
Blue Jays vs Rays predictions
It was another display of bad baseball in the Blue Jays’ 6-4 series-opening loss against the Rays. Chris Bassitt’s scoreless inning streak came to an end through no fault of his own. Bassitt ended up giving up six runs, but only two of them were earned and came in the sixth and seventh innings, respectively, on solo home runs.
So, long story short, the Blue Jays dug themselves a 4-0 hole and were never able to climb out of it.
The loss was the Blue Jays’ fifth in a row and their 11th in their last 12 games vs. AL East opponents. And the odds aren’t in their favor that things will improve in Game 2 tonight.
That’s in part because Toronto hands the ball to Jose Berrios. And despite showing some signs of improvement this season, Berrios still has some pretty gnarly home/road splits.
The right-hander owns a 2.22 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, and is limiting opponents to a .220 batting average at home this season. But “evil” Jose Berrios tends to show up on the road. The RHP has been knocked around for a 6.67 ERA, his WHIP sits at 1.48, and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him. And today he takes the ball in what is arguably the toughest place to win for a road team in 2023 — Tropicana Field.
The Rays have been the best team in baseball and are a ridiculous 22-4 at home. Tampa is also crushing right-handed pitching this season, ranking fifth in batting average and first in OPS and wRC+ when stepping up to the plate vs. righties.
Countering Berrios is the latest in a long list of impressive Rays’ pitching prospects in right-hander Taj Bradley. The Rays were likely wanting to not rush the 22-year-old along too quickly, but their injury luck in the starting rotation has been brutal and Bradley has been thrust into action. And the early returns are pretty impressive.
Bradley mostly uses an electric fastball that averages 96 miles per hour along with a cutter. But he throws a changeup and curveball in there for good measure. So far, it’s working.
The right-hander is pitching to a 2.51 expected ERA, is limiting opponents to a .183 expected batting average, and has a crazy 33.8% K-rate through his first four big league starts. All three of those marks are in the 92nd percentile or better.
Next up for Bradley is a scuffling Blue Jays lineup. Toronto ranks 22nd in OPS and 20th in wRC+ over the last eight games, where the team is just 1-7. The Jays are also struggling to get that clutch hit. The team has a .236 batting average with runners in scoring position, which ranks 24th in the MLB.
Like I said, this is the darkest timeline for the Blue Jays right now. They are playing bad baseball and have to go into one of the toughest places to win. Until they get back to the fundamentals, its hard to envision them jumping back to one of the brighter timelines. I'm betting on another dark start for the Blue Jays, and taking the Rays in the first five frames.
My best bet: Rays first five inning moneyline (-127 at SIA)
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Blue Jays vs Rays moneyline analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as +110 road underdogs, and they have actually seen the early money, moving them into the +105 range, with the Rays on the board at -125 home favorites.
As I broke down above, I find this line movement a little surprising. Berrios’ home/road splits are ugly, and it’s not like "The Trop" is an exception. The right-hander has been tagged for an 8.68 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in four career starts there, while Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, and Harold Ramirez all have a career expected slugging percentage of .400 or better vs. Berrios.
The Rays just have edges all over the field at the moment. Hitting, starting pitching, bullpen, and even the Blue Jays’ defense has been a little shaky lately. I believe there is value in the Rays on both the five-inning moneyline and the full-game moneyline at this price.
Blue Jays vs Rays Over/Under analysis
The total for this divisional tilt hit the board at 8.5, and that’s where it remains as of Tuesday afternoon. I don’t have a super-strong feeling about the total in this matchup because I am unsure of the output we will see from the Blue Jays.
While the lineup has the potential to be one of the better in baseball, it just hasn’t clicked for them yet. And they are currently having trouble plating runs. Toronto is averaging just 3.25 runs per game over the last eight games.
That said, I would very slightly lean Over because Bradley is still so young, and the Rays average 5.8 runs per nine innings vs. right-handed pitching, so they shouldn’t have much trouble lighting up the scoreboard with Berrios on the bump.
Blue Jays vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, May 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet 1, Bally Sports Sun |
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (3-4, 4.61 ERA): Berrios has shown some signs of improvement over his last three starts, pitching to a 3.89 ERA. However, his struggles on the road since becoming a member of the Blue Jays have been well-documented.
Taj Bradley (3-0, 3.54 ERA): Bradley is just the latest in a long line of great Rays pitching prospects. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start, and has racked up 27 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Blue Jays are 18-38 in their last 56 games at Tropicana Field. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rays
